TROPICAL FOREST ANIMALS PROVIDE VALUABLE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES THAT ARE GENERALLY UNRECOGNIZED BECAUSE THEY ARE DIFFICULT TO QUANTIFY AT THE MACROSCALE. THIS MAKES THEM MORE VULNERABLE TO EXTINCTION PRESSURES BECAUSE THEY ARE OFTEN UNDERVALUED. HERE WE PROPOSE TO ADDRESS THE ROLE OF ANIMALS IN TROPICAL FORESTS BY ADDING SPACE-BASED FOREST STRUCTURE MEASUREMENTS TO AN ECOSYSTEM MODEL WITH COMPLEX ANIMAL ECOLOGY (THE MADINGLEY MODEL). CURRENTLY MADINGLEY DOES NOT EXPLICITLY INCORPORATE 3D FOREST STRUCTURE SO IT CANNOT MAKE USEFUL PREDICTIONS FOR TROPICAL FORESTS. IF WE ARE SUCCESSFUL THE MADINGLEY MODEL WILL BRIDGE SEVERAL ESSENTIAL BIODIVERSITY VARIABLES (EBVS) ADDRESSING TRAITS COMPOSITION AND ECOSYSTEM FUNCTION COMBINING REMOTELY SENSED OBSERVATIONS WITH DATA CONSTRAINED MODELLING. WE PROPOSE TO RUN MADINGLEY USING SATELLITE DERIVED MODIS NET AND GROSS PRIMARY PRODUCTION (GPP NPP) PRODUCTS PARTITIONING NPP INTO FOUR CANOPY LAYERS BASED ON THE GRIDDED LAI PRODUCTS FROM THE UPCOMING GEDI (GLOBAL ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS INVESTIGATION) LIDAR MISSION. SINCE RUNNING MADINGLEY FOR INDIVIDUAL SPECIES AT THE GLOBAL LEVEL IS INFEASIBLE NOT LEAST BECAUSE OF INADEQUATE PARAMETERIZATIONS (ONLY 10-20% OF SPECIES HAVE BEEN DESCRIBED) AND COMPUTATIONAL DEMANDS MADINGLEY USES COHORTS OR GROUPS OF ANIMALS THAT SHARE SIMILAR CATEGORICAL AND CONTINUOUS TRAITS. IN ADDITION TO ADDING FOREST STRUCTURE WE PROPOSE TO ADD TWO NEW FUNCTIONAL TRAITS TO THE MODEL. FIRST WE WILL ADD A TRAIT THAT DETERMINES THE CAPACITY FOR ORGANISMS TO USE VERTICAL STRUCTURE E.G. FOR HABITAT AND FORAGE. WE WILL PARAMETERIZE THIS FOR LARGER BODIED ORGANISMS (E.G. MONKEYS OR BIRDS) BASED ON EXISTING LITERATURE AND A WEALTH OF GPS ANIMAL DATA INCLUDING 3D ACCELEROMETER DATA WHILST FOR INVERTEBRATES WILL MAKE USE OF A NEW INSECT LEAF HERBIVORY DATASETS. SECOND WE WILL INCORPORATE A TRAIT THAT DETERMINES THE CAPACITY FOR ORGANISMS TO ENGINEER OR MODIFY ECOSYSTEM STRUCTURE (E.G. FOREST ELEPHANTS). WE WILL PARAMETERIZE THIS COHORT BASED ON DETAILED GABON ELEPHANT TRACKING AND ABUNDANCE DATA COMBINED WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION AIRCRAFT LIDAR AND PUBLISHED LITERATURE ON HOW FOREST ELEPHANTS IMPACT FOREST STRUCTURE. WE WILL INITIALLY RUN AND PARAMETRIZE MADINGLEY FOR THREE TROPICAL FIELD SITES WHERE WE HAVE AN ABUNDANCE OF DATA (GABON FOR ECOSYSTEM ENGINEERING PERU FOR THE LEAF HERBIVORY AND THE ATLANTIC FOREST IN BRAZIL FOR THE VERTICAL USE PROPENSITY). ONCE WE HAVE CONFIDENCE AT THESE THREE SITES WE WILL RUN SIMULATIONS FOR THE BROADER TROPICS. WITH THESE RESULTS WE CAN MODEL HOW SCENARIOS OF FAUNAL EXPLOITATION FOREST FRAGMENTATION OR CLIMATE CHANGE MAY AFFECT KEY EBVS (SPANNING TRAITS COMPOSITION FUNCTION AND STRUCTURE) AS WELL AS ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AT THE MACROSCALE. FOR EXAMPLE WE WILL ESTIMATE THE IMPACT OF THE LOSS OF THREATENED INSECTIVORES ON TROPHIC CASCADES (WITH ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ON INSECT ABUNDANCE) AND ON ECOSYSTEM SERVICES (INCREASED INSECT HERBIVORY REDUCES LEAF AREA AND CARBON UPTAKE). A RECENT GLOBAL STUDY SHOWS THAT ANIMAL MOVEMENT IS A FUNCTION OF THE HUMAN FOOTPRINT. WE WILL INCORPORATE THIS STUDY PLUS STRUCTURE INFORMATION FROM GEDI TO BETTER PARAMETERIZE HOW ANIMALS MOVE LATERALLY IN MADINGLEY. THIS WILL HELP BETTER UNDERSTAND KEY ECOSYSTEM SERVICES SUCH AS NUTRIENT AND SEED DISPERSAL. ULTIMATELY WE WILL USE NCAR S CESM LAND MODEL OUTPUTS TO PREDICT TROPICAL FOREST NPP AND RUN MADINGLEY UNDER VARIOUS FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS. OVERALL MADINGLEY IS A UNIQUE TOOL THAT CAN INFORM EBVS SUCH AS TRAITS (E.G. BODY MASS DISTRIBUTIONS) COMPOSITION (FUNCTIONAL DIVERSITY) STRUCTURE (SIZE AND TROPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS) AND ECOSYSTEM FUNCTION. HOWEVER WITHOUT FOREST STRUCTURE IT IS UNREALISTIC IN TROPICAL FORESTS THE MOST DATA LIMITED BUT BIODIVERSITY RICH BIOME ON THE PLANET. WITH THIS PROPOSAL WE AIM TO ADDRESS THIS SHORTCOMING AND CREATE A MODEL COMBINING SATELLITE DATA AND PREDICTIVE BIODIVERSITY MODELLING.
$693,909FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA
Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff AZ