WE PROPOSE TO CREATE A SYSTEM FOR MAKING QUANTITATIVE FORECASTS AND SPECIFICATIONS OF OUTER RADIATION BELT ELECTRONS BASED ON CURRENT AND FORECASTED SOLAR WIND CONDITIONS AS WELL AS ON THE HISTORY OF SOLAR WIND AND MAGNETOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. THE PROPOSED WORK IS A NATURAL EXTENSION OF OUR CURRENT RESULTS IN FORECASTING THE MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS (GEO) ORBIT AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES E.G. AE AND DST. THIS PROPOSED WORK IS ALSO TIMELY SINCE WE HAVE NOW ACCUMULATED MORE THAN SIX YEARS OF RELATIVISTIC ELECTRON DATA INSIDE GEO BY VAN ALLEN PROBES ENABLING US TO BUILD AND VALIDATE OUR FORECASTING MODEL OF THE RELATIVISTIC ELECTRONS INSIDE GEO. THE DYNAMICS OF RELATIVISTIC ELECTRONS IN THE EARTH S MAGNETOSPHERE ARE OF FUNDAMENTAL SCIENCE INTEREST AND ALSO OF CONSIDERABLE PRACTICAL IMPORTANCE BECAUSE OF THEIR EFFECT ON SPACECRAFT AND BECAUSE OF THEIR RADIATION HAZARD TO ASTRONAUTS WHO PERFORM EXTRAVEHICULAR ACTIVITY (EVA). OUR REAL-TIME FORECASTING MODELS FOR>2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEO AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES AE AND DST HAVE BEEN IN OPERATION FOR MANY YEARS BASED ON REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND MEASUREMENTS FROM ACE (PREVIOUSLY) AND DSCOVR (CURRENTLY) HTTP://LASP.COLORADO.EDU/~LIX/. VAN ALLEN PROBES HAVE PROVIDED MORE THAN SIX YEARS OF DETAILED MEASUREMENTS OF ENERGETIC PARTICLES ELECTRIC AND MAGNETIC FIELDS AND VARIOUS WAVES IN THE INNER MAGNETOSPHERE WHICH PROVIDES US A VALUABLE DATA SET TO EXTEND OUR FORECAST MODELS FOR THE REGIONS INSIDE GEO AND FOR A BROAD SPECTRUM OF RELATIVISTIC ELECTRONS. OUR PROPOSED MODELS WILL INCORPORATE THE IMPACT OF BOUNDARY CONDITIONS SUCH AS THE VARIABLE LOCATION OF THE MAGNETOPAUSE AND PLASMAPAUSE ON THE RADIATION BELT ENVIRONMENT. THE MODEL WILL DETERMINE THE ENERGY SPECTRUM AND RADIAL PROFILE OF THE OUTER RADIATION BELT ELECTRONS. OUR PROPOSED MODELS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITIES TO MAKE REAL-TIME ESTIMATES AND/OR RETROSPECTIVE ESTIMATES OF RELATIVISTIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT ANY SPACECRAFT LOCATION AT AND INSIDE GEO GIVING THE REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND CONDITION AND/OR RETROSPECTIVE SOLAR WIND CONDITION.
$407,102FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA
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