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WE PROPOSE A 2-YEAR PROJECT TO DEVELOP AN INNER MAGNETOSPHERE FIRST-PRINCIPLES NUMERICAL MODEL CAPABLE OF PREDICTING GEOSYNCHRONOUS ELECTRON FLUXES SUBSTANTIALLY BETTER THAN THE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE OPERATIONAL PREDICTIVE MODELS. THE MODEL WILL BE BASED ON THE LATEST VERSION OF THE RICE CONVECTION MODEL (RCM) AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF RETROSPECTIVE FLUX SPECIFICATIONS WITH THE REAL-TIME PREDICTIVE CAPABILITIES BASED ON INPUT DATA AVAILABILITY. THIS WORK WILL BE A LOGICAL CONTINUATION OF TWO PREVIOUS MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS BY OUR GROUP. THE MSFM (MAGNETOSPHERIC SPECIFICATION AND FORECAST MODEL) WHICH WAS COMPLETED IN THE 1990'S WAS DESIGNED TO CALCULATE KILOVOLT ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT AND IS CURRENTLY COUPLED TO THE NASCAP CODE TO PROVIDE ESTIMATES OF SPACECRAFT CHARGING. THE MSFM WAS ESSENTIALLY A SIMPLIFIED VERSION OF THE 1990-VINTAGE RICE CONVECTION MODEL (RCM). A MORE MODERN VERSION OF THE RCM WAS COUPLED TO THE GLOBAL BATS-R-US MHD CODE AS PART OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SPACE WEATHER MODELING FRAMEWORK (SWMF) AND AN OPERATIONAL VERSION OF THAT CODE IS CURRENTLY DEPLOYED BY THE NOAA SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER. THE PROPOSED EFFORT IS TO DEVELOP THE LATEST VERSION OF THE RCM INTO SPACE-WEATHER CODE THAT CAN PREDICT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ELECTRON FLUXES SUBSTANTIALLY BETTER THAN THE EXISTING MODELS. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON PREDICTING THE ELECTRON FLUXES OF ENERGIES UP TO 50 KEV NEAR THE GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBITS (L=4-7). THESE ELECTRONS ARE THOUGHT TO BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN CAUSING SPACECRAFT SURFACE CHARGING. ABILITY TO PREDICT THE ION FLUXES IN THE INNER MAGNETOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE QUANTIFIED BUT IS A SECONDARY GOAL OF THE PROJECT. THE WORK IS NOW POSSIBLE AND TIMELY BECAUSE OUR GROUP RECENTLY MADE MANY IMPROVEMENTS IN THE RCM AND BECAUSE PHYSICAL UNDERSTANDING OF PARTICLE TRANSPORT THROUGH THE PLASMA SHEET AND BETWEEN THE PLASMA SHEET AND RING CURRENT HAS MUCH IMPROVED IN RECENT YEARS. THE METHODOLOGY WILL CONSIST OF TARGETED CODE MODIFICATIONS TO THE INPUTS TO THE RCM CODE AND MULTI-PHASE TESTING AND VALIDATION USING GEOSYNCHRONOUS PARTICLE DATA. THE BASIC VALUES OF THE INPUTS WILL BE ESTIMATED FROM SOLAR-WIND DATA USING STANDARD RCM PROCEDURES. HOWEVER THE STANDARD VALUES WILL BE MODIFIED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF DEPLETED-ENTROPY/FAST-FLOW CHANNELS. THE POTENTIAL ON THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CORRESPONDINGLY MODIFIED. THE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS AND MAGNETIC FIELD MODEL WILL ALSO BE MODIFIED TO DESCRIBE GROWTH-PHASE STRETCHING AND EXPANSION PHASE DIPOLARIZATION IN SUBSTORMS. THESE MODIFICATIONS WILL BE PARAMETERIZED. DURING THE FIRST TESTING AND VALIDATION PHASE THE MODEL WILL BE USED TO SIMULATE ELECTRON GEO FLUXES OVER A SELECTION OF EVENTS AND THE VALUES OF THE SCALING PARAMETERS WILL BE CHOSEN TO GIVE THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVED SPACECRAFT ELECTRON GEO FLUXES FROM THE LANL MPA INSTRUMENT OVER THIS SET OF EVENTS. DURING THE VALIDATION PHASE OF THE PROJECT THE MODEL WILL BE USED WITH OPTIMIZED PARAMETERS TO SIMULATE A MUCH LARGER SET OF TIME PERIODS (CHOSEN FROM DIFFERENT YEARS TO COVER DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE SOLAR CYCLE). SIMULATED ELECTRON GEO FLUXES WILL BE COMPARED WITH MPA LANL SPACECRAFT DATA TO QUANTIFY THE OVERALL ACCURACY OF THE MODEL. THE CODE WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF RUNNING IN A POST-EVENT-ANALYSIS MODE IN WHICH GEOSYNCHRONOUS ELECTRON FLUXES MEASURED DURING THE EVENT ARE ASSIMILATED INTO THE CODE TO IMPROVE ACCURACY. RECENT ADVANCES HAVE PROVIDED US WITH SUFFICIENT INSIGHT INTO THE PHYSICS OF THESE PHENOMENA THAT CONSIDERABLY IMPROVED SPECIFICATION AND FORECAST SHOULD BE POSSIBLE. AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE PROJECT WE ANTICIPATE HAVING A PREDICTIVE MODEL OF ELECTRON FLUXES IN THE INNER MAGNETOSPHERE DRIVEN BY REAL-TIME INPUTS THAT WILL INCORPORATE THE PHYSICS OF THE BI-MODAL TRANSPORT IN THE PLASMA SHEET AND WILL BE READY FOR FURTHER OPERATIONAL TESTING.

$342,316FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA

William Marsh Rice University, Houston TX

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