NASA GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER (GSFC) AND THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN (UMICH) PROPOSE A ONE-YEAR EXTENSION OF THEIR COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM (MSEC) THAT ATTACKS ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS IN SPACE WEATHER: UNDERSTANDING THE GIANT EXPLOSIONS OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FIELD AND PLASMA KNOWN AS ERUPTIVE FLARES/CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CMES). OUR STRATEGY WITH MSEC HAS BEEN TO DEVELOP A SECOND-GENERATION STRATEGIC CAPABILITY (SC) THAT ENABLES BOTH OUR TEAM AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OUTSIDE COMMUNITY TO TEST THEORIES OF SOLAR ERUPTIONS AGAINST OBSERVED EVENTS AND TO WORK TOWARD A PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY. AS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL BELOW WE HAVE BEEN FULLY SUCCESSFUL IN DELIVERING TO THE CCMC THIS SECOND-GENERATION SC FOR MODELING CMES/ERUPTIVE FLARES. MSEC IS TRULY PIONEERING IN THAT TO OUR KNOWLEDGE IT IS THE FIRST CCMC MODEL THAT IS DESIGNED FOR EXPLORATORY SCIENCE. IT IS NOW BEING USED BY THE COMMUNITY. FOR THE ONE-YEAR EXTENSION WE PROPOSE TWO CRITICAL TASKS THAT WILL GREATLY ENHANCE THE UTILITY AND THE SPACE WEATHER IMPACT OF MSEC. WE WILL FIRST INCORPORATE INTO MSEC THE ABILITY TO SELECT A VARIETY OF ENERGY BUILDUP MECHANISMS THAT LEAD TO ERUPTION. IN PARTICULAR WE WILL INCORPORATE THE OPTIONS OF USING THE TITOV-D MOULIN (T-D) MODEL AND OUR HELICITY CONDENSATION MODEL THAT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE MAJOR SCIENCE RESULTS OF THE MSEC PROGRAM. THESE OPTIONS WILL ALLOW THE USER TO EXPLORE THE FULL RANGE OF ERUPTION MECHANISMS. THE T-D MODEL ASSUMES A TWISTED FLUX ROPE FOR THE PRE-ERUPTION FIELD WHICH LEADS TO AN IDEAL ERUPTION KINK/TORUS INSTABILITY AND THE CLOSELY RELATED LOSS OF EQUILIBRIUM. THE HELICITY CONDENSATION MECHANISM PRODUCES A SHEARED ARCADE WHICH GENERALLY LEADS TO A RECONNECTION- DRIVEN (BREAKOUT-TYPE) ERUPTION. IT IS CRITICAL THAT MSEC HAVE THIS FLEXIBILITY IN ORDER FOR USERS TO TEST BETWEEN THE COMPETING CME-INITIATION MECHANISMS. WITH THIS EXTENSION WE EXPECT THAT MSEC WILL BECOME THE GO-TO TOOL USED WIDELY BY THE UPCOMING CME-INITIATION LWS FOCUSED SCIENCE TEAM WHICH WILL BEGIN WORKING NEXT YEAR. SECOND WE WILL RUN MSEC FOR A VARIETY OF OBSERVED EVENTS AND FOR VARIOUS INITIATION MECHANISMS IN ORDER TO QUANTIFY ITS SPACE WEATHER CAPABILITIES. WE ARE NOT PROPOSING TO DEVELOP MSEC INTO AN OPERATIONAL TOOL; CLEARLY WE ARE STILL FAR FROM BEING ABLE TO DO THIS. ON THE OTHER HAND WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING FULL SUN-TO-EARTH MODELS FOR CME INITIATION AND PROPAGATION FOR OVER A DECADE NOW. IT IS NOW TIMELY TO QUANTIFY ACCURATELY THE SHORTCOMING OF OUR MODELS IN PREDICTING KEY QUANTITIES SUCH AS CME ARRIVAL TIME MAGNETIC STRUCTURE SIZE AND LOCATION. FURTHERMORE IT WOULD BE HIGHLY VALUABLE TO DETERMINE WHICH OF THE INITIATION MECHANISMS DOES A BETTER JOB AT PREDICTING SUCH SPACE WEATHER QUANTITIES. IF WE ARE EVER TO DEVELOP A USEFUL PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY FOR CMES/ERUPTIVE FLARES WE NEED TO BEGIN IDENTIFYING NOW THE MOST IMPORTANT SOURCES OF ERROR IN THE MODELS. OF COURSE RUNNING ALL POSSIBLE CME MODELS AND MAKING DEFINITIVE PROGRESS ON IMPROVING SPACE WEATHER CAPABILITY OF MSEC IS A HUGE TASK REQUIRING WELL BEYOND A ONE-YEAR EXTENSION. THE KEY POINT HOWEVER IS THAT WE WILL ALLOW THE WHOLE COMMUNITY TO PERFORM ITS OWN SPACE WEATHER TEST STUDIES THEREBY GREATLY AMPLIFYING THE SPACE WEATHER IMPACT OF MSEC. IN THE SECTIONS BELOW WE FIRST DESCRIBE THE MAJOR ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF THE MSEC PROGRAM BOTH THE NUMERICAL MODELS THAT WE HAVE DEVELOPED/DELIVERED AND SOME OF THE KEY SCIENCE ADVANCES MADE BY OUR TEAM WHICH ARE MOST RELEVANT TO THE PROPOSED MSEC EXTENSION. THEN WE DESCRIBE OUR PROPOSED MSEC-X PROGRAM THAT WILL DELIVER THE TWO CRITICAL EXTENSIONS DISCUSSED ABOVE AS WELL AS OPEN THE WAY
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