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ACUTE SPACE RADIATION HAZARDS POSE ONE OF THE MOST SERIOUS RISKS TO FUTURE HUMAN AND ROBOTIC EXPLORATION. LARGE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP EVENTS OR SOLAR PROTON EVENTS SPES) ARE DANGEROUS TO ASTRONAUTS AND EQUIPMENT. TO MITIGATE THE HAZARD THEY POSE WE MUST DEVELOP THE ABILITY TO PREDICT WHEN AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR AND PROVIDE ADEQUATE SHIELDING AGAINST THEM. C-SWEPA COMBINES TWO SUCCESSFUL LWS STRATEGIC CAPABILITIES TO PRODUCE A SYNTHESIS WITH TRANSFORMATIONAL POTENTIAL ON MANY FRONTS. C-SWEPA INTEGRATES THE EARTH-MOON-MARS RADIATION ENVIRONMENT MODULES [EMMREM SCHWADRON ET AL. 2010] DESCRIBING ENERGETIC PARTICLES AND THEIR EFFECTS WITH CORONA-HELIOSPHERE (CORHEL) DEVELOPED BY THE PREDICTIVE SCIENCE INC. (PSI) GROUP. OUR GOAL IS TO DEVELOP A COUPLED MODEL THAT DESCRIBES THE CONDITIONS OF THE CORONA SOLAR WIND CMES SHOCKS PARTICLE ACCELERATION AND PROPAGATION VIA PHYSICS-BASED MODULES. ASSESSING THE THREAT OF SPES IS A DIFFICULT PROBLEM. THE LARGEST SPES TYPICALLY ARISE IN CONJUNCTION WITH X-CLASS FLARES AND VERY FAST (>1000 KM/S) CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CMES). THESE EVENTS ARE USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH COMPLEX SUNSPOT GROUPS (ALSO KNOWN AS ACTIVE REGIONS) THAT HARBOR STRONG STRESSED MAGNETIC FIELDS. HIGHLY ENERGETIC PROTONS GENERATED IN THESE EVENTS TRAVEL NEAR THE SPEED OF LIGHT AND CAN ARRIVE AT EARTH MINUTES AFTER THE ERUPTIVE EVENT. THE GENERATION OF THESE PARTICLES IS IN TURN BELIEVED TO BE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOCK WAVE FORMED VERY LOW IN THE CORONA BY THE PASSAGE OF THE CME (INJECTION OF PARTICLES FROM THE FLARE SITE MAY ALSO PLAY A ROLE). WHETHER THESE PARTICLES ACTUALLY REACH EARTH (OR ANY OTHER POINT) IS GOVERNED BY WHETHER THE SHOCK IS MAGNETICALLY CONNECTED TO THE LOCATION OF INTEREST WHICH DEPENDS ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE MAGNETIC FIELD AND LOCAL SHOCK PROPERTIES. THREAT ASSESSMENT FACES MANY CHALLENGES. THE FAST ARRIVAL TIME OF THE MOST DANGEROUS PARTICLES MEANS THAT A USEFUL PREDICTION MUST BE CARRIED OUT PRIOR TO THE ACTUAL FLARE/CME EVENT. MANY FAST CMES DO NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RADIATION STORMS EITHER BECAUSE FEW ENERGETIC PARTICLES ARE GENERATED OR BECAUSE THEY MISS EARTH. TO PREDICT ENERGETIC PARTICLE GENERATION BY A CME AND ASSOCIATED SHOCK A DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF AMBIENT CONDITIONS (E.G. ALFV N SPEED) IS NECESSARY AND THE SHOCK PROPAGATION FROM THE LOW CORONA MUST BE MODELED. AN ACCELERATION AND PROPAGATION MODEL FOR THE ENERGETIC PARTICLES IS NECESSARY TO ESTIMATE PARTICLE FLUXES. FINALLY A RADIATION TRANSPORT MODEL IS REQUIRED TO ESTIMATE RADIATION DOSE-RELATED QUANTITIES. C-SWEPA S CENTRAL OBJECTIVE IS TO DEVELOP AND VALIDATE A NUMERICAL FRAMEWORK OF PHYSICS-BASED MODULES TO COUPLE THE LOW CORONA CMES SHOCKS SOLAR WIND AND ENERGETIC PARTICLE ACCELERATION. USING PRE-EXISTING EMMREM MODULES WE CHARACTERIZE TIMEDEPENDENT RADIATION EXPOSURE IN INTERPLANETARY SPACE ENVIRONMENTS. SIMULATED OBSERVERS PROVIDE SYNTHETIC PROBES SPECIFYING SOLAR WIND CONDITIONS ENERGETIC PARTICLE FLUXES AND MHD FLUCTUATIONS. MODEL RESULTS ARE USED IN VALIDATION STUDIES THROUGH COMPARISONS WITH WIDELY DISTRIBUTED OBSERVATIONS IN THIS 1-YEAR EXTENSION OF THE C-SWEPA PROJECT WE PROPOSE TO: (1) ENHANCE THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE C-SWEPA MODULE SUBMITTED TO THE CCMC FOR PROPAGATION OF COUPLED EVENTS USING PSI S MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC ALGORITHM OUTSIDE A SPHERE (MAS) (A COMPONENT OF CORHEL) COUPLED TO THE ENERGETIC PARTICLE RADIATION ENVIRONMENT MODULE (EPREM A COMPONENT OF EMMREM). THIS REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT ADVANCE OVER THE CURRENT CAPABILITY WHICH MODELS EVENTS THROUGH THE LOW CORONA AND INNER HELIOSPHERE. (2) EXPLORE THE NEXT STEPS NECESSARY FOR MAJOR ADVANCEMENTS ON THE SEP PREDICTION PROBLEM WITH A FOCUS ON IMPROVED SCIENCE UNDERSTANDING THROUGH OBSERVATIONAL VALIDATION OF EVENTS MODELED WITH CSWEPA. DATA SETS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VALIDATION WORK WILL ALSO BE DELIVERED TO THE CCMC.

$289,500FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA

University System Of New Hampshire

Investigators

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