OBJECTIVE: THIS PROJECT WILL CONNECT NASA PMM OUTPUTS (SPECIFICALLY AN ENHANCED IMERG DATASET) WITH AGMIP CROP MODELS TO SERVE THE INFORMATION NEEDS OF THE FOOD SECURITY EARLY WARNING COMMUNITY AND THE FEWS NET LAND DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM (FLDAS). DESCRIPTION: THIS PROPOSAL WILL ADDRESS SECTION 2.3 OF THE CALL - "METHODOLOGY DEVELOPMENT FOR IMPROVED APPLICATION OF SATELLITE DATA PRODUCTS". SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES INCLUDE: I) DOWNSCALING OF SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES (IMERG) TO AGRO-METEOROLOGICAL SCALES II) IMPROVED RAINFED AGRICULTURAL MODELING AND III) THE INCREASED USE OF SATELLITE PRECIPITATION DATA IN AGRICULTURE FOOD SECURITY AND DISASTER RISK REDUCTION APPLICATIONS. OVERVIEW: THE GOAL OF THIS PROJECT WOULD BE TO ENHANCE GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOKS FOR RAIN-FED GROWING REGIONS ESPECIALLY IN DATA SPARSE REGIONS WHERE SATELLITE PRODUCTS PROVIDE A CRITICAL LINE OF DEFENSE AGAINST CLIMATIC SHOCKS. THE GOAL WOULD BE TO COMBINE STATIONENHANCED DOWNSCALED 0.05 IMERG PRECIPITATION WITH CROP MODELING SIMULATIONS PRODUCING A SYSTEM SUITABLE FOR MONITORING AND ESTIMATING AGRICULTURAL YIELDS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD. ANTICIPATED END USERS WILL BE THE USAID FEWS NET SERVIR PROGRAM THE NASA FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURE CONSORTIUM THE USDA FOREIGN AGRICULTURE SERVICE AND GEOGLAM. NEW RESEARCH: THE PROPOSAL WILL SEEK SUPPORT FOR TWO COMPONENTS: 1) THE EXPLORATION DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION OF ENHANCED IMERG DOWNSCALING/STATION BLENDING PROCEDURES AND 2) THE EXPLORATION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF REGIONAL YIELD ESTIMATION SYSTEMS. COMPONENT 1 WILL DEVELOP DOWNSCALED IMERG FIELDS - 'AGMERG' BASED ON CONDITIONALLY BIAS CORRECTED IMERG DATA AND IN SITU OBSERVATIONS. TWO AGMERG PRODUCTS WILL BE DEVELOPED: (I) A ~24 HOUR LATENCY BIAS CORRECTED PRODUCT ENHANCED WITH GLOBAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM (GTS) AND OTHER AUTOMATIC STATION DATA ARCHIVES AND (II) A ~45 DAY LATENCY PRODUCT ENHANCED WITH THE FULL CLIMATE HAZARDS GROUP (CHG.UCSB.EDU) STATION ARCHIVE. THE LATTER WILL INCORPORATE A LARGE NUMBER OF MONTHLY STATION OBSERVATIONS (SIMILAR TO THOSE PROVIDED BY THE GPCC) WHICH ARE CURATED AUTOMATICALLY AND VISUALLY BY THE CHG. THIS COMPONENT WILL EXAMINE THE FOLLOWING RESEARCH QUESTIONS: 1) CAN IMPROVED POST HOC CLIMATOLOGICAL CALIBRATION IMPROVE IMERG LATE PRODUCT PERFORMANCE? 2) DO IMERG LATE PRODUCTS OVERESTIMATE LOW PRECIPITATION RATES AND UNDERESTIMATE HIGH RAIN RATES? 3) DOES THIS RESULT IN DAMPED PRECIPITATION VARIANCE? CAN THIS BE CORRECTED? 4) CAN STATION ENHANCEMENT IMPROVE THE LATE IMERG PRODUCT? AND 5) CAN IMPROVEMENTS BE MADE TO THE CHG INTERPOLATION PROCESS? COMPONENT 2 WILL DEVELOP A SYSTEM TO PREDICT YIELDS IN RAINFED AREAS IN SELECTED FOOD INSECURE COUNTRIES USING AND EVALUATING THREE SEPARATE APPROACHES TO YIELD ESTIMATION: STATISTICAL MODELS CROP WATER REQUIREMENT SATISFACTION INDICES AND A PROCESS-BASED CROP MODEL (DSSAT). VALIDATION DATA SETS WILL BE PROVIDED BY FEWS NET. THE PROJECT EFFORTS WILL BENEFIT FROM AND BENEFIT THE WELL-DEVELOPED AGRICULTURAL MODELING INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT (AGMIP WWW.AGMIP.ORG). THE CHG WILL WORK WITH AGMIP LEADERSHIP TO PACKAGE AGMERG FOR EASY INGEST BY THE AGMIP COMMUNITY. DRS. RUANE AND MUTTER WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE TO THE CHG IN THE USE OF THE DSSAT MODEL (JONES ET AL. 2003). BY LEVERAGING AGMIP'S INTELLECTUAL RESOURCES TO ADDRESS FOOD INSECURITY THIS MODEST PROJECT SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUBSTANTIALLY ADVANCE THE GOALS OF OUR END USER INSTITUTIONS MANY REPRESENTED HERE BY COLLABORATORS THEREBY EXPANDING THE PMM USER COMMUNITY IN A CRITICAL BUT RELATIVELY UNDERSERVED CONSTITUENCY: AGRICULTURE. THIS COMPONENT WILL ADDRESS TWO RESEARCH QUESTIONS: 1) CAN IMERG DATA BE USED TO IMPROVE AGRICULTURAL EARLY WARNING? AND 2) WHAT ARE THE RELATIVE MERITS OF DIFFERENT APPROACHES AND COMPLEXITIES?