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MOTIVATION: INADEQUATE ENERGY SUPPLY IS A KEY CHALLENGE FOR AFRICA S PRODUCTIVITY AND COMPETITIVENESS. OPTIMAL RESERVOIR OPERATION CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY PRODUCED FROM EXISTING HYDROPOWER SYSTEMS. IN A RECENTLY COMPLETED WORK WE HAVE DEVELOPED A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM (DSS) THAT AIDS DECISION MAKERS IN PLANNING SEASONAL (60 180 DAY LEAD TIME) RESERVOIR WATER ALLOCATIONS. THE DSS CURRENTLY IMPLEMENTED BY HYDROPOWER COMPANIES IN ETHIOPIA AND TANZANIA HAS DEMONSTRATED AN INCREASE IN ENERGY PRODUCTION COMPARED TO DECISIONS MADE WITHOUT THE DSS. DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS THAT GUIDE OPERATIONAL RESERVOIR DECISIONS WITH 1 8 DAY LEAD TIME ARE MUCH MORE USEFUL GIVEN THAT HYDROPOWER OPERATION IS HIGHLY VARIABLE WITHIN A SEASON. THE CENTRAL HYPOTHESIS OF THIS PROPOSAL IS THAT GPM IMERG PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH OTHER SATELLITE LAND SURFACE PRODUCTS HAVE ENORMOUS POTENTIAL TO GUIDE OPTIMAL RESERVOIR OPERATION DECISIONS THAT MAXIMIZE ENERGY PRODUCTION. OBJECTIVE: THE OBJECTIVE OF THE PROPOSAL IS TO DEVELOP METHODOLOGY FOR APPLICATION OF GPM DATA IN DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM THAT AIDS DECISION MAKERS IN SCHEDULING THE QUANTITY AND TIMING OF RESERVOIR RELEASES FOR DAILY TO WEEKLY OPERATIONS OF HYDROPOWER SYSTEMS. THE DSS WILL GENERATE OPTIMAL RESERVOIR RELEASES ON AN OPERATIONAL TIMESCALE (I.E. 1-8 DAY LEAD TIME OR MEDIUM-RANGE) THAT MAXIMIZE ELECTRICAL ENERGY PRODUCED WHILE BALANCING REQUIREMENTS AND CONCERNS RELATED TO FLOOD CONTROL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS AND WATER SUPPLY. THE DSS WILL BE DEVELOPED AND IMPLEMENTED IN TWO RIVER BASINS IN EAST AFRICA: THE OMO-GIBE RIVER BASIN IN ETHIOPIA THAT HAS A CASCADE OF FIVE HYDROPOWER RESERVOIR DAMS AND THE PANGANI RIVER BASIN IN TANZANIA THAT HAS ONE HYDROPOWER RESERVOIR DAM AND THREE HYDROPOWER PLANTS. APPROACH: THE DSS WILL BE DEVELOPED SUCH THAT IT USES (1) GPM IMERG NEAR-REAL-TIME DATA FOR RECENT RAINFALL INFORMATION AND FOR CALIBRATING (BIAS-CORRECTION AND SPATIAL DOWNSCALING) MEDIUM-RANGE (1-8 DAY LEAD TIME) CLIMATE FORECASTS (2) NOAH- MULTIPARAMETERIZATION LAND SURFACE MODEL DRIVEN THROUGH NASA S LAND INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR HYDROLOGIC MODELLING (3) NASA S SATELLITE LAND SURFACE PRODUCTS PARTICULARLY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOIL MOISTURE FOR IMPROVING HYDROLOGIC MODEL CALIBRATION AND (4) OPTIMIZATION THROUGH NON-LINEAR PROGRAMMING FOR MAXIMIZING ENERGY PRODUCTION WHILE MEETING REGULATORY CONSTRAINTS. THIS WILL BE DONE THROUGH ADDRESSING THE FOLLOWING RESEARCH QUESTIONS: 1) TO WHAT EXTENT CAN GPM IMERG PRECIPITATION IMPROVE ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS AT LEAD TIMES OF 1-8 DAYS? 2) TO WHAT EXTENT CAN SATELLITE SOIL MOISTURE AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ALONG WITH GPM IMERG PRECIPITATION IMPROVE HYDROLOGIC MODEL CALIBRATION? 3) TO WHAT EXTENT CAN GPM IMERG NEAR REAL-TIME RAINFALL IMPROVED MEDIUM-RANGE RAINFALL FORECAST AND IMPROVED HYDROLOGIC MODEL CALIBRATION LEAD TO IMPROVEMENTS IN STREAMFLOW FORECAST ACCURACY AND AMOUNT OF ENERGY PRODUCED? RELEVANCE TO SOLICITATION: THE PROPOSED WORK DIRECTLY ADDRESSES THE MAIN THEME OF NASA PMM SCIENCE TEAM METHODOLOGY DEVELOPMENT FOR IMPROVED APPLICATIONS OF SATELLITE DATA PRODUCTS . SPECIFICALLY IT (1) DEVELOPS NEW METHODOLOGY THAT UTILIZES GPM DATA SATELLITE LAND SURFACE PRODUCTS (MAINLY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOIL MOISTURE) NASA S LAND INFORMATION SYSTEM (LIS) AND MEDIUM-RANGE CLIMATE MODEL OUTPUTS TO PRODUCE DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR HYDROPOWER RESERVOIR OPERATIONS (2) ENABLES END-USERS IN ETHIOPIA (ETHIOPIAN ELECTRIC POWER) AND TANZANIA (TANZANIA ELECTRICITY COMPANY) TO UTILIZE GPM IMERG DATA AND OTHER NASA EOS DATA PRODUCTS AND MODELS IN ORDER TO INCREASE ENERGY PRODUCTION FROM EXISTING HYDROPOWER SYSTEMS AND (3) IMPROVES MEDIUM-RANGE STREAMFLOW AND RAINFALL FORECASTS THAT ARE IMPORTANT TO ADDRESS OTHER WATER-RELATED CHALLENGES IN EAST AFRICA SUCH AS IRRIGATION WATER MANAGEMENT AND RAINFED AGRICULTURE.

$461,400FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA

University Of California, Los Angeles

Investigators

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