CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CMES) CAUSE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SPACE WEATHER EFFECTS NEAR THE EARTH AND THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM. THESE RAPID EXTREME CHANGES IN PLASMA AND MAGNETIC FIELD CAN CAUSE EFFECTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND ON THE SURFACE OF PLANETARY BODIES AS WELL AS THREATEN ANY NEARBY SPACE BORNE TECHNOLOGIES. MITIGATING THESE EFFECTS REQUIRES KNOWING IF AND WHEN A CME MAY IMPACT AS WELL AS THE CME S PROPERTIES UPON IMPACT. KAY ET AL. (2013 2015) DEVELOPED FORECASTING A CME S ALTERED TRAJECTORY A MODEL FOR THE NONRADIAL MOTION OF CMES CLOSE TO THE SUN. FORECAT SIMULATES BOTH DEFLECTION A CHANGE IN A CME S LATITUDE OR LONGITUDE AND ROTATION A CHANGE IN THE CME S ORIENTATION. NUMEROUS STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT FORECAT REPRODUCES THE DEFLECTION AND ROTATION OF OBSERVED CMES (E.G. KAY ET AL. 2016 2017A CAPANNOLO ET AL. 2017). BUILDING UPON THE SUCCESS OF FORECAT KAY ET AL. (2017B) INTRODUCED THE FORECAT IN SITU DATA OBSERVER (FIDO). FIDO USES THE RESULTS FROM FORECAT TO POSITION AND ORIENT A MAGNETIC FLUX ROPE AS IT PASSES OVER AN OBSERVER YIELDING SYNTHETIC IN SITU OBSERVATIONS. KAY&GOPALSWAMY (2017) SHOWED THAT FIDO CAN REPRODUCE THE MAGNETIC PROFILES OF NEAR-EARTH CMES. WE PROPOSE TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THE FORECAT AND FIDO SUITE OF MODELS AS THEY REPRESENT A UNIQUE STYLE OF MODEL SIMPLE ENOUGH TO RUN LARGE NUMBERS OF CASES BUT COMPLEX ENOUGH TO ACCURATELY REPRODUCE OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL TAKE THE REMAINING STEPS NECESSARY TO YIELD ROBUST COMPLETE MODELS OF THE BEHAVIOR OF CMES BETWEEN THE SUN AND EARTH WHICH WOULD THEN BE READY FOR POTENTIAL SPACE WEATHER OPERATIONS. THE PROPOSED WORK IS DIVIDED INTO FOUR MAJOR SUBTASKS. FIRST WE WILL INCORPORATE PREEXISTING MODELS FOR THE ARRIVAL TIME TO COMPLETE THE SUN-TO-EARTH CHAIN IN OUR MODELS DETERMINING WHEN THE IMPACT OCCURS. SECOND WE WILL USE THE PROPERTIES OF THE ACTIVE REGION FROM WHICH A CME ERUPTS TO DETERMINE THE PROPERTIES OF THE MODELED CME REDUCING THE NUMBER OF UNKNOWN FREE PARAMETERS IN THE MODEL. THIRD WE WILL COMPARE FORECAT AND FIDO RESULTS WITH IN SITU OBSERVATIONS FROM SATELLITES AT MULTIPLE HELIOCENTRIC DISTANCES AND LONGITUDES. FINALLY WE WILL USE THE EFFICIENT NATURE OF FORECAT AND FIDO TO PERFORM ENSEMBLE STUDIES OF THE EFFECTS OF SMALL CHANGES REFLECTING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FREE PARAMETERS. BY COMPLETING THE PROPOSED WORK WE WILL HAVE COMPLETED A FULL MODEL FOR THE BEHAVIOR OF CMES FROM THE SUN-TO-EARTH ALLOWING US TO DETERMINE IF WHEN AND HOW A CME MAY IMPACT ON TIMESCALES NECESSARY FOR ACTUAL PREDICTIONS.
$484,345FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA
Catholic University Of America (The)