THIS PROPOSAL WILL SEEK TO IMPROVE EMISSION ESTIMATES OF OZONE PRECURSORS FROM US OIL AND NATURAL GAS (O&G) DEVELOPMENT AND ATTRIBUTE THE IMPACTS OF O&G EMISSIONS ON TROPOSPHERIC OZONE. THE PROPOSED WORK WILL ADDRESS RESEARCH AREA A OF THE CALL SPECIFICALLY STUDIES OF THE ATTRIBUTION OF CHANGES IN AIR QUALITY AND OXIDIZING CAPACITY OVER THE PAST 20 YEARS. WE WILL INVESTIGATE THE FOLLOWING SCIENCE QUESTIONS: ..WHAT ARE THE CURRENT O&G EMISSIONS OF NITROGEN OXIDES (NOX) AND VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUNDS (VOCS) AND WHAT ARE THEIR IMPACTS ON TROPOSPHERIC OZONE? ..HOW ARE O&G ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED EMISSIONS CHANGING WITH TIME AND WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR AIR QUALITY NOW AND IN THE FUTURE? ..WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITES TO MONITOR AND UPDATE O&G EMISSIONS? ..TO ANSWER OUR SCIENCE QUESTIONS WE WILL EXPAND UPON A NEW BOTTOM-UP INVENTORY OF EMISSIONS THE FUEL-BASED OIL AND GAS (FOG) INVENTORY. CURRENTLY FOG MAPS NOX EMISSIONS FROM O&G ACTIVITIES FOR THE YEAR 2013. WE PROPOSE TO ADD NON-METHANE VOCS AND METHANE (CH4) EMISSIONS TO FOG AND EXPAND FOG INTO OTHER YEARS IN ORDER TO CAPTURE LONG-TERM TRENDS. WE WILL SIMULATE FOG NOX AND VOC EMISSIONS IN A ZERO-DIMENSIONAL BOX MODEL AND THREE-DIMENSIONAL CHEMICAL TRANSPORT MODEL AND EVALUATE FOG WITH SELECT SUBORBITAL AIRCRAFT CAMPAIGNS THAT OCCURRED BETWEEN 2000 AND 2015. WE WILL ALSO EVALUATE FOG WITH SATELLITE RETRIEVALS OF NITROGEN DIOXIDE (NO2) AND FORMALDEHYDE (HCHO) FROM THE OZONE MONITORING INSTRUMENT (OMI) AND TROPOSPHERIC OZONE MONITORING INSTRUMENT (TROPOMI). BECAUSE THE CONSTRUCTION OF BOTTOM-UP INVENTORIES IS A TIME-INTENSIVE ACTIVITY WE WILL EXPLORE WHETHER NOX AND VOC EMISSIONS IN FOG CAN BE PROJECTED IN NEAR-REAL-TIME WITH HIGHER-RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGERY SUCH AS FROM TROPOMI (2018 AND LATER). THE TROPOSPHERIC EMISSIONS: MONITORING OF POLLUTION (TEMPO) SATELLITE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SIMILAR CAPABILITIES AS TROPOMI TO DETECT NO2 AND HCHO AND OUR NEAR REAL-TIME EMISSIONS FORECASTING METHODOLOGY WE PROPOSE COULD BE ADAPTED TO INCLUDE TEMPO RETRIEVALS IN THE FUTURE. LASTLY WE WILL MODEL THE IMPACTS OF O&G EMISSIONS ON AIR QUALITY IN THE WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING WITH CHEMISTRY (WRF-CHEM) MODEL INCLUDING FOR TROPOSPHERIC OZONE (AND POSSIBLY AEROSOLS). THE TIME PERIOD WE PLAN TO MODEL (E.G. 2000 VS. 2020) WILL SIMULATE RAPID GROWTH IN O&G EMISSIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOOM IN NEWER EXTRACTION METHODS SUCH AS HYDRAULIC FRACTURING AND HORIZONTAL DRILLING. ..OUR RESEARCH WILL HELP DETERMINE HOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF O&G RESOURCES IS CHANGING THE COMPOSITION OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND HOW THESE CHANGES AFFECT AIR QUALITY. MANY AREAS OF THE US ARE ANTICIPATED TO VIOLATE THE REVISED 8-HOUR OZONE STANDARD (70 PPB) AND INCLUDE NOT JUST CITIES BUT SEVERAL O&G PRODUCING AREAS. OUR WORK WILL HELP ELUCIDATE THE LINK BETWEEN O&G EMISSIONS ON TROPOSPHERIC OZONE. WE WILL MAKE PUBLICLY AVAILABLE THE FOG INVENTORY FOR OTHER RESEARCHERS TO UTILIZE IN FUTURE MODELS AND DATA ANALYSIS EFFORTS. ADDITIONALLY WE WILL COLLABORATE WITH THE ROYAL NETHERLANDS METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE (KNMI) ON THIS PROJECT AND SEEK TO IMPROVE PUBLICLY AVAILABLE OMI/TROPOMI NO2 AND HCHO SATELLITE PRODUCTS OVER O&G BASINS. .
$633,910FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA
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