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OUR PROPOSAL ENHANCING THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS FOR MILITARY STAKEHOLDERS THROUGH GREATER USE OF NASA SATELLITE AND MODELING RESOURCES SEEKS TO DELIVER THE FOLLOWING CRITICAL AND INTER-CONNECTED PIECES OF INFORMATION FOR DECISION SUPPORT: A HIGH QUALITY GLOBAL FLASH DROUGHT CLIMATOLOGY IMPROVED GLOBAL DROUGHT MONITORING AND RISK ASSESSMENTS OF FLASH DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT OR INTENSIFICATION AT THE SUB-SEASONAL TO SEASONAL SCALE. THIS INFORMATION WILL BE USED BY MILITARY STAKEHOLDERS TO HELP PREVENT AND CONTAIN CONFLICT THAT MAY ARISE BECAUSE OF DROUGHT INDUCED FOOD SHORTAGES AND/OR FOOD PRICE SHOCKS. WE BELIEVE THAT CURRENT AND FUTURE NASA SATELLITE AND MODELING ASSETS WILL ALLOW US TO ACCOMPLISH THE THREE RESEARCH OBJECTIVES WE HAVE PUT FORTH. OUR FIRST OBJECTIVE IS TO DEVELOP A GLOBAL FLASH DROUGHT CLIMATOLOGY THAT WILL BE USED TO INFORM STAKEHOLDERS OF HISTORICAL HOT SPOTS. WE WILL ACCOMPLISH THIS USING THE NASA MERRA-2 DATASET CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT STATE OF THE SCIENCE FOCUSED ON EVAPORATIVE STRESS IN VEGETATION. OUR SECOND OBJECTIVE IS TO USE THE GLOBAL REAL-TIME EVAPORATIVE STRESS INDEX (ESI) RAPID CHANGE INDEX (RCI) OTHER VEGETATION-RELATED DATASETS COMPUTED USING NASA ASSETS AND OTHER APPROPRIATE INDICES FOR NEAR REAL TIME MONITORING OF FLASH DROUGHT. WE WILL LINK THE CURRENT STATE OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FROM THE NEAR REAL-TIME MONITORING TO THE CLIMATOLOGY TO PROVIDE CONTEXT OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF FLASH DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT. OUR THIRD OBJECTIVE IS TO USE EXISTING MONITORING AND FORECASTING ASSETS TO PROVIDE A RISK ASSESSMENT OF FLASH DROUGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER SUB-SEASONAL TO SEASONAL TIME SCALES USING A HYBRID STATISTICAL APPROACH. WE CONTEND THAT DROUGHTS ARE OF CRITICAL AND INCREASING SIGNIFICANCE FROM A UNITED STATES NATIONAL SECURITY PERSPECTIVE BECAUSE THEIR IMPACTS ARE SIGNIFICANT FROM A FOOD SECURITY PERSPECTIVE. A CONTEMPORARY EXAMPLE OF DROUGHT INDUCED CONFLICT IS THE ONGOING CONFLICT IN SYRIA. THE PROJECT WE HAVE PROPOSED WILL GIVE OUR MILITARY STAKEHOLDERS DECISION-SUPPORT INFORMATION ABOUT DROUGHT IN THE PROPER TEMPORAL CONTEXT(S). INTELLIGENCE DERIVED FROM OUR PROJECT WILL BE USED TO HELP MITIGATE OR PREVENT CONFLICT THAT MAY ARISE (DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY) FROM DROUGHT INDUCED CROP LOSSES OR CROP FAILURES. THEREFORE THE CONNECTION BETWEEN DROUGHT AND FOOD SECURITY IS PALPABLE AND OF INCREASING IMPORTANCE. FURTHERMORE WE EXPECT TO HAVE LETTERS OF SUPPORT FROM ALL OF OUR MILITARY STAKEHOLDERS REGARDING THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS PROJECT.

$387,440FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA

Atmospheric & Environmental Research Inc

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