WE WILL DELIVER THE ANNUAL GLOBAL METHANE BUDGET AND ITS UNCERTAINTIES FROM JANUARY 2018 THROUGH DECEMBER 2021. AS DEMONSTRATED IN THIS PROPOSAL THE BUDGET IS PARTITIONED BY SOURCE TYPE (E.G. FOSSIL FUEL WETLANDS FIRES AGRICULTURE) AND INCLUDES THE GLOBAL SINK FROM OXIDATION BY THE OH RADICAL. THE BUDGET WILL INCLUDE WELL-CHARACTERIZED UNCERTAINTIES THAT ARE TRACEABLE BACK TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DATA AND MODEL. WHERE POSSIBLE WE WILL GENERATE EMISSIONS ESTIMATES FOR INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES IN ORDER TO EVALUATE NATIONAL INVENTORIES REPORTED TO THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (UNFCCC). WE UTILIZE THE TOOLS DATA AND EXPERTISE BUILT FROM PREVIOUS ROSES CARBON MONITORING SYSTEM (CMS) INTERDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE (IDS) CARBON CYCLE AND ECOSYSTEM (CCE) AND AURA MISSION GRANTS TO ACCOMPLISH THIS GOAL. STATE-OF-THE SCIENCE BOTTOM-UP INVENTORIES (E.G. WETLANDS FROM INUNDATION / RAINFALL FOSSIL FUELS FROM COUNTRY REPORTED TOTALS) ARE USED AS PRIOR KNOWLEDGE. TOP DOWN FLUX ESTIMATES ARE PROVIDED BY INTEGRATING SATELLITE BASED MEASUREMENTS OF TOTAL COLUMN METHANE WITH TWO STATE-OF-THE SCIENCE MODELS (GEOS-CHEM AND LMDZ). AFTER FLUXES OF METHANE ARE COMPUTED A BAYESIAN ATTRIBUTION APPROACH INTEGRATES THE QUANTIFIED METHANE FLUXES WITH FIRE EMISSION ESTIMATES OF METHANE BASED ON MODIS BURNED AREA AND MOPITT CO DATA AND SURFACE MEASUREMENTS OF METHANE AND ITS ISOTOPIC COMPOSITION TO BETTER QUANTIFY METHANE EMISSIONS BY SOURCE AND GEOGRAPHICAL REGION INCLUDING UNCERTAINTIES.
$277,450FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA
California Institute Of Technology, Pasadena CA