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THE PROPOSAL HYPOTHESIZES THAT A CLOUD-RESOLVING MODEL (RESOLUTION LESS THAN 10 KM) DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE OUR ABILITY TO IMPROVE GHG TRANSPORT FIDELITY WITH RESPECT TO OUR AIRBORNE OBSERVATIONS. THIS MAY BE TRUE DURING THE COLD SEASON WHEN THE TROPOSPHERE IS MOSTLY CONVECTIVELY STABLE AND VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS ARE MAIN FORCED STABLE ASCENT IN BAROCLINIC WAVES (THAT CAUSES THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS) AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS. DUE THE WARM SEASON UNSTABLE CONVECTION AND HENCE UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE TRANSPORT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND TRACER GASES INTO THE FREE ATMOSPHERE AND CLOUD-RESOLVING MODELS HAVE TO BE SHOWN TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS (CLARK ET AL. 2009) CLOSELY LINKED TO VERTICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SHOULD ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE VERTICAL GHG TRANSPORT AND DISTRIBUTION. AT RESOLUTIONS COARSER THAN 10 KM VERTICAL TRANSPORT OF GHGS HAS TO BE PARAMETERIZED JUST AS VERTICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY CONVECTIVE STORMS HAVE TO BE PARAMETERIZED BY CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES WHICH IS THE GREATEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. RECENT MODELING STUDIES (HU ET AL. 2013A B C; KLEIN ET AL. 2013) WITH WRF COUPLED WITH WRF-CHEMISTRY MODEL HAVE SHOWN STRONG SENSITIVITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND ATMOSPHERIC TRACER GASES INCLUDING OZONE TO THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE CONDITIONS INCLUDING PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ONSET AND STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL JETS PBL PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES. THE OU/CAPS GROUP HAS ALSO BEEN CARRYING OUT REALTIME MULTI-MODEL MULTI-PHYSICS STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS AT 4 KM GRID SPACING OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S. FOR THE PAST 6 YEARS DURING THE SPRING SEASONS (XUE ET AL. 2009) TOGETHER WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION DATA ASSIMILATION. THIS SYSTEM CAN BE LEVERAGED AND ENHANCED TO INCLUDE THE TRANSPORT OF ADDITIONAL GHGS EMPLOYING THE WRF-CHEM CAPABILITIES AND STUDY THE SENSITIVITY OF GHGS TRANSPORT AND CONCENTRATION PREDICTIONS TO UNCERTAINTIES IN WRF MODEL PHYSICS GHG FLUX INPUTS AND MODEL SOLUTION AND THE IMPACTS OF ASSIMILATING ACT-AMERICA MEASUREMENTS. THE DATA ASSIMILATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS BASED ON A COMPUTATIONALLY EFFICIENT 3DVAR SYSTEM ALTHOUGH MORE SOPHISTICATED ENSEMBLE KALMAN FILTER (ZHU ET AL. 2013) AND THE ENSEMBLEVARIATIONAL HYBRID SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN ESTABLISHED FOR THE WRF MODEL (LI ET AL. 2012; PAN ET AL. 2013) WILL BE USED IN THE FUTURE. THE OU GROUP MAY CONTRIBUTE TO PROJECT IN THE AREAS OF DATA ASSIMILATION ENSEMBLE MODELING AND UNDERSTANDING OF THE INTERACTIONS OF THE SYNOPTIC MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE AND BOUNDARY LAYER PROCESSES WITH GHG TRANSPORT AND MIXING.

$167,808FY2017National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA

University Of Oklahoma, Norman OK

Investigators

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