THIS IS A LETTER OF INTENT FOR A RESEARCH PROPOSAL BEING SUBMITTED BY FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY (PI IS DR. T.N.KRISHNAMURTI). THIS LETTER ADDRESSES THE RECENT CALL FOR PROPOSALS A FIELD EXPERIMENT TO STUDY CONVECTIVE PROCESSES (CPEX) IN THE TROPICS UNDER WEATHER AND ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS NASA FUNDING OPPORTUNITY NUMBER NNH16ZDA001N-WAAD. THIS PROPOSAL ADDRESSES THE UNDERSTANDING AND MODELING OF HURRICANE GENESIS AND INTENSITY CHANGE ARISING FROM THE ORGANIZATION (VERSUS THE DISRUPTION) OF CONVECTION USING DATA ASSIMILATION WRF AND WRF-CHEM MODELS AT CLOUD RESOLVING RESOLUTIONS AND OSSE S (OBSERVING SYSTEM SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS). VALIDATION OF THE WINDS FROM DAWN IN THE CONTEXT OF TROPICAL MODELING WILL BE A PRINCIPAL GOAL OF THE STUDY. HURRICANE INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE IMPACTED BY FACTORS SUCH AS OCEAN SURFACE WIND MEASUREMENT INACCURACY AND INSUFFICIENT SAMPLING OF THE HURRICANE'S INNER CORE. OUR FIRST OBJECTIVE IS TO ADDRESS DATA ASSIMILATION THAT COMBINES COHERENT WIND LIDAR (DAWN) BASED WINDS DROPWINDSONDE WINDS SURFACE WINDS FROM CYGNSS AND PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM AIRBORNE RADAR/ GPM BASED RAINFALL. THE ASSIMILATION WILL UTILIZE THE ENSEMBLE KALMAN FILTER (BASED ON A HYBRID OF GSI AND 3DVAR) AND FSU PHYSICAL INITIALIZATION AT A HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION OF 1.33 KM AND WILL INCLUDE WINDS AND RAINFALL RATE ESTIMATES THAT ARE SUCCESSIVELY ITERATED TO ARRIVE AT AN EQUILIBRIUM STATE. ASSIMILATION HIGH RESOLUTION FORECASTS AND POST-PROCESSING WILL PROVIDE AN UNDERSTANDING OF GENESIS AND/OR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF A HURRICANE AND THE ROLE OF THE ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION. THE ULTIMATE GOAL IS TO PREPARE FOUR DIMENSIONAL DATA SETS FOR CAPTURING THE ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION (WINDS PRECIPITATION AND THERMAL STRUCTURE AND HUMIDITY DISTRIBUTIONS) FOR MODEL FORECAST SENSITIVITY STUDIES DURING THE FIELD PHASE OF CPEX. OSSE BASED DATA ASSIMILATION EXPERIMENTS SHOWED POSITIVE IMPACTS OF LIDAR WIND DATA FOR HURRICANE FORECASTS BUT ALSO SHOWED SENSITIVITY TO THE SECTOR OF THE HURRICANE WHERE DATA WAS EXTRACTED. RESULTS SHOWED IMPROVEMENTS IN THE SIMULATION OF HURRICANES FROM THE USE OF CERTAIN FLIGHT PLANS SUCH AS THE BUTTERFLY PATTERN THAT RECOGNIZE THE ROLE OF THE ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION. USING THE WRF-CHEM MODEL WE PROPOSE TO CONTINUE RESEARCH ON THE IMPACTS OF INCREASED AEROSOL LOADING IN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH REGARD TO CHANGES IN THE ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AND THE INTENSITY OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE AEROSOL DIRECT EFFECT PERTAINS TO CHANGES IN THE RADIATION BALANCE OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHILE THE AEROSOL INDIRECT EFFECTS (FIRST AND SECOND) TOGETHER AFFECT THE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY OF THE CLOUDS. THESE AEROSOL EFFECTS CAN CHANGE THE ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY AND THE ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION LEADING TO CHANGES IN THE FORMATION AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. WE EXPECT THAT DURING JUNE 2017 CPEX WILL ENCOUNTER AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ASSIMILATING DATA SETS TO EXPLORE SUCH EVENTS. ALTHOUGH NASA WILL SEPARATELY FUND AND MANAGE THE FIELD PHASE AT FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY WE PLAN TO MAINTAIN DETAILED REAL TIME LINKS FOR MONITORING DAILY WEATHER INCLUDING VARIOUS ASSIMILATION PRODUCTS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DIVERSE FORECAST PRODUCTS. THESE PRODUCTS WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE TO THE FIELD PHASE TO AID OPERATIONS. OVERALL OUR PROPOSED RESEARCH WILL INCLUDE THE DETAILED STUDY OF DATA ASSIMILATION OF WINDS AND PRECIPITATION AND WILL HELP TO ADDRESS MANY ISSUES SUCH AS THE IMPACTS FROM WIND LIDAR AS COMPARED TO DROPWINDSONDES ON DATA ASSIMILATION. THE SCIENCE WILL INCLUDE THE EFFECTS OF WIND SHEAR DRY AIR AND AEROSOL INTRUSIONS AND MIDDLE LATITUDE TROUGH INTERACTIONS ON HURRICANE GENESIS AND INTENSIFICATION.
$476,291FY2017National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA
Florida State University, Tallahassee FL