YEAR 1 (PROPOSED) 4 MONTHS FTE FOR CO-I VOLK 1 MONTH FTE FOR PI MURRAY-CLAY: WE WILL FULLY TEST WHETHER OUR CONCLUSIONS ABOUT THE 3:2 POPULATION (MODELS AND POPULATION ESTIMATES) ARE DEPENDENT ON THE ASSUMPTIONS MADE WHEN GENERATING THE MODEL POPULATION FOR THE SURVEY SIMULATOR (TASK 1). THIS SHOULD TAKE ABOUT 5 WEEKS FOR CO-I VOLK AND 2 WEEKS FOR PI MURRAY-CLAY (THE ANALYSIS OF THE LESS COMPLICATED PLANAR CASE TOOK A COMBINED 4 WEEKS). WE START THE STABILITY MAPPING SIMULATIONS FOR THE 5:2 RESONANCE (TASK 2); BASED ON THE 3:2 MAPPING SIMULATIONS THIS WILL TAKE CO-I VOLK 1 WEEK TO SET UP AND 1 WEEK TO MONITOR AS THEY RUN. CO-I VOLK WILL UPDATE THE ORBIT FITS AND DYNAMICAL CLASSIFICATIONS FOR THE FIRST FOUR OSSOS BLOCKS AND AID IN PLANNING FOLLOW-UP OBSERVATIONS AS NEEDED (TASK 1); THIS WILL TAKE 2 WEEKS FOR CO-I VOLK (BASED ON EXPERIENCE WITH THE FIRST TWO OSSOS BLOCKS). CO-I VOLK WILL USE THE SURVEY SIMULATOR TO CONSTRAIN THE PARAMETERIZED 3:2 5:2 AND 2:1 MODELS BASED ON THE FIRST 4 OSSOS BLOCKS (TASK 1);THIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE 4 WEEKS FOR CO-I VOLK. WE ESTIMATE THAT IT WILL TAKE 4 WEEKS FOR CO-I VOLK AND 2 WEEKS FOR PI MURRAY-CLAY TO THEN ASSEMBLE PAPER 1. UPDATE: THIS WORK HAS BEEN COMPLETED. OUR FIRST PAPER IS PUBLISHED: OSSOS III(RESONANT TRANS-NEPTUNIAN POPULATIONS: CONSTRAINTS FROM THE FIRST QUARTER OF THE OUTER SOLAR SYSTEM ORIGINS SURVEY." VOLK MURRAY-CLAY GLADMAN ET AL. 2016 AJ 152 23 YEAR 2 (4 MONTHS FTE FOR CO-I VOLK 1 MONTH FTE FOR PI MURRAY-CLAY): WE WILL CONSTRUCT A THEORETICAL MODEL FOR THE TEMPORARILY STUCK RESONANT POPULATION (TASK 3). WE ESTIMATE IT WILL TAKE 2 WEEKS FOR CO-I VOLK TO MODEL THE SCATTERING POPULATIONS WITH THE SURVEY SIMULATOR AND CONSTRUCT INITIAL CONDITIONS FOR THE SIMULATION. WE ESTIMATE THAT THE ANALYSIS OF THE SIMULATIONS WILL TAKE CO-I VOLK 4 WEEKS INCLUDING REFINING THE RESONANCE STICK DETECTION ALGORITHM. WE WILL SET UP AND RUN MAPPING SIMULATIONS FOR THE 5:1 RESONANCE (2 WEEKS FOR CO-I VOLK). CO-I VOLK AND PI MURRAY-CLAY WILL THEN ANALYZE THE RESULTS OF THE 3:2 5:2 AND 5:1 STABILITY MAPPING SIMULATIONS; BASED ON PRIOR EXPERIENCE THE ANALYSIS SHOULD TAKE 2 WEEKS EACH FOR CO-I VOLK AND PI MURRAY-CLAY. CO-I VOLK WILL THEN SPEND 1 WEEK COMPARING THE 3:2 5:2 AND 5:1 OSSOS DETECTIONS WITH THE PREDICTIONS FROM THE RESONANCE STICKING SIMULATIONS AND THE MAPPING SIMULATIONS. UPDATING THE ORBIT FITS/CLASSIFICATIONS OF THE OSSOS DETECTIONS AND PLANNING FOLLOW-UP OBSERVATIONS FOR THE FOUR REMAINING OSSOS BLOCKS WILL TAKE CO-I VOLK 2 WEEKS. THEN WE ESTIMATE 4 WEEKS FOR CO-I VOLK AND 2 WEEKS FOR PI MURRAY-CLAY TO WRITE PAPER 2. UPDATE: UPDATES TO THE ORBITS FITS/CLASSIFICATIONS OF THE OSSOS DETECTIONS AND PLANNING FOR FOLLOW-UP OBSERVATIONS WERE COMPLETED. WE HAVE ALMOST COMPLETED WORK ON OUR MODEL OF THE TEMPORARILY STUCK RESONANT POPULATION AND EXPECT TO SUBMIT A PAPER ON THIS SUBJECT SOON. OUR MAPPING SIMULATIONS ARE PARTIALLY COMPLETE. COMPARISON BETWEEN THE OSSOS DETECTIONS AND PREDICTIONS FROM THE RESONANCE STICKING SIMULATIONS IS IN PROGRESS. SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS HAS ALSO BEEN MADE ON ADDITIONAL WORK MODELING THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION IN THE 3:2 RESONANCE. YEAR 3 (4 MONTHS FTE FOR CO-I VOLK 1 MONTH FTE FOR PI MURRAY-CLAY): CO-I VOLK WILL SPEND 2 WEEKS FINALIZING THE ORBIT FITS/CLASSIFICATIONS FOR ALL EIGHT OSSOS BLOCKS AND 5 WEEKS RE-ANALYZING ALL THE RESONANCE MODELS AND POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR THE OBSERVED RESONANCES. CO-I VOLK AND PI MURRAY-CLAY WILL EACH SPEND 2-3 WEEKS SETTING UP RUNNING AND ANALYZING STABILITY MAPS FOR ANY OTHER DISTANT RESONANCES THAT HAVE ENOUGH DETECTIONS TO ADDRESS THE QUESTION OF TEMPORARILY STUCK OBJECTS. CO-I VOLK WILL SPEND 2 WEEKS RE-ANALYZING THE RESONANCE STICKING SIMULATIONS FOR RESONANCES THAT WERE NOT ADDRESSED IN PAPER 2 AND COMPARING THE RESULTS TO THE OBSERVATIONS. CO-I VOLK AND PI MURRAY-CLAY WILL SPEND 4 AND 2 WEEKS RESPECTIVELY WRITING PAPER 3. UPDATE: WORK ON FINALIZING THE ORBIT FITS/CLASSIFICATIONS FOR ALL EIGHT OSSOS B
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