RECENT SPACE-BASED AND MODELING CAPABILITIES COMBINED WITH OVER A DECADE OF HIGH-QUALITY U.S. AIR POLLUTION MEASUREMENTS AND PUBLIC HEALTH RECORDS OFFER NOVEL OPPORTUNITIES TO QUANTIFY CHANGING AIR POLLUTION LEVELS AND ASSOCIATED HEALTH EFFECTS. THERE IS A GROWING NEED FOR HEALTH IMPACT TOOLS THAT DRAW ON MODELS AND SATELLITE PRODUCTS TO QUANTIFY AND PRIORITIZE SOURCES THAT CONTRIBUTE TO ADVERSE HEALTH IMPACTS. WE PROPOSE TO COMBINE SATELLITE PRODUCTS GROUND-BASED MEASUREMENTS AND EARTH SYSTEM MODELS TO: 1) CONDUCT A MULTI-POLLUTANT HEALTH IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR AT LEAST THE PAST DECADE OVER NEW YORK STATE (NYS); 2) ATTRIBUTE BACKGROUND VERSUS U.S. ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES THAT CAN BE LINKED WITH HEALTH ANALYSES ON DAILY TO INTER-ANNUAL TIME SCALES AND 3) ESTIMATE UNCERTAINTIES IN SATELLITE-BASED AND MODELING APPROACHES TO SOURCE ATTRIBUTION AND TO EXPOSURE MAPPING AT MULTIPLE TIME AND SPACE SCALES. SPECIFICALLY WE WILL GENERATE ANNUAL SEASONAL AND WHERE POSSIBLE DAILY EXPOSURE MAPS FOR OZONE FINE PARTICULATE MATTER (PM2.5) AND NITROGEN DIOXIDE (NO2) OVER NYS FOR AT LEAST THE PAST DECADE BY COMBINING EXISTING SATELLITE PRODUCTS (INCLUDING MULTI-SENSOR FUSION PRODUCTS) WITH GROUND-BASED MEASUREMENTS. WE WILL EXPLOIT HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING EXISTING NYS DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION (NYSDEC) SIMULATIONS FOR PAST AND PRESENT STATE IMPLEMENTATION PLANS TO EVALUATE THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL SCALES FOR WHICH RELIABLE EXPOSURE ESTIMATES CAN BE DERIVED FROM CURRENT SATELLITE PRODUCTS AND TO DEMONSTRATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE ADVANCES WITH INSTRUMENTS ABOARD GEOSTATIONARY PLATFORMS (E.G. TEMPO). BY APPLYING STATISTICAL MODELS (STANDARD POISSON TIME SERIES REGRESSION AND CASE-CROSSOVER) WE WILL ESTIMATE SPATIOTEMPORAL ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN AIR POLLUTION LEVELS AND HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS AND EMERGENCY ROOM VISITS IN NYS.OUR NYS ANALYSES WILL INFORM THE NYS DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH (NYSDOH) SURVEILLANCE SYSTEM (ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH TRACKING PROGRAM) AND SERVE AS A MODEL FOR OTHER REGIONS. WE WILL PROBE DAILY TO SEASONAL VARIABILITY IN INDIVIDUAL BACKGROUND SOURCES (E.G. STRATOSPHERIC INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT FROM CANADA MEXICO AND ASIA AND WILDFIRES) IN TWO MODELS (GEOS-CHEM AND GFDL AM3) USED TO ESTIMATE BACKGROUND POLLUTANT LEVELS AND TO PROVIDE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS FOR REGIONAL REGULATORY MODELING IN SUPPORT OF NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARD AND REGIONAL HAZE RULE PLANNING. FOR INTERNATIONAL POLLUTANT TRANSPORT WE WILL ALSO DRAW ON A BROAD SET OF MODEL SIMULATIONS COORDINATED BY THE TASK FORCE ON HEMISPHERIC TRANSPORT OF AIR POLLUTION. SATELLITE PRODUCTS AND IN SITU OBSERVATIONS WILL BE ANALYZED ALONGSIDE THESE MODELS TO IDENTIFY CONSTRAINTS ON ANTHROPOGENIC VERSUS BACKGROUND SOURCES AND TO PROVIDE UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATES. OUR PROPOSED APPROACH IS A STEP TOWARDS IDENTIFYING SOURCE-SPECIFIC EXPOSURE PATTERNS NEEDED TO QUANTIFY ACCOMPANYING HEALTH IMPACTS FOR USE IN DECISION-MAKING.PI FIORE BRINGS OVER A DECADE OF EXPERIENCE ANALYZING MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS FOR SOURCE ATTRIBUTION ON MULTIPLE SPACE AND TIME SCALES RANGING FROM INDIVIDUAL POLLUTION EPISODES TO DECADAL SHIFTS IN THE BALANCE OF BACKGROUND VERSUS ANTHROPOGENIC POLLUTANT SOURCES AS WELL AS POLLUTANT INTERACTIONS WITH WEATHER AND CLIMATE. CO-I KINNEY BRINGS 30 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE IN AIR POLLUTION EPIDEMIOLOGY AND EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT AND OVER A DECADE OF LEADING INTEGRATED ASSESSMENTS OF THE HEALTH CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCLUDING THROUGH AIR POLLUTION. AS A MEMBER OF NASA AQAST FIORE EXPANDED HER PRIOR EXPERIENCE CONDUCTING POLICY-RELEVANT SCIENCE AND DELIVERING INFORMATION TO THE AIR QUALITY POLICY COMMUNITY AND ESTABLISHED NEW RELATIONSHIPS WITH U.S. STATE AND REGIONAL AIR QUALITY MANAGERS. AS PART OF H-AQAST OUR TEAM WILL ALSO ADD A STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVE BUILDING UPON AND EXPANDING EXISTING RELATIONSHIPS WITH SCIENCE AND POLICY STAFF AT U.S. EPA AND AT NYSDOH.
$929,965FY2016National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA
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