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IMPROVING GREENLAND-WIDE ICE DISCHARGE PROJECTIONS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY AND BEYOND.IDENTIFY VULNERABLE OUTLET SYSTEMS. COMBINING SUBGLACIAL TOPOGRAPHY FROM MORLIGHEM ET AL. (2014) AND THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ELEVATION CHANGE MEASUREMENTS FROM OPERATION ICEBRIDGE'S ATM WE WILL IDENTIFY OUTLET GLACIERS THAT ARE CLOSE TO FLOTATION. 2. TEST AND CALIBRATE THE STRESS CALVING MODEL. THE STRESS CALVING MODEL BY MORLIGHEM ET AL. (2016) WAS IMPLEMENTED INTO PISM IN APRIL 2016 AND COMPLEMENTED BY A FRONTAL MELT MODEL IN MAY 2016. THOROUGH TESTING AND CALIBRATION WILL BE PERFORMED FIRST WITH FOCUS ON JAKOBSHAVN ISBRRE AND THEN EXTENDING TO THE WHOLE-ICE-SHEET SCALE. TO CALIBRATE THE MODEL WE WILL HINDCAST THE ERA-INTERIM PERIOD 1980-2014 AND COMPARE TO OBSERVATIONS OF SURFACE ELEVATION CHANGE (ICESAT ATM) TIME SERIES OF SURFACE VELOCITIES (FROM SAR AND LANDSAT) AND FRONTAL POSITION AND MASS CHANGES FROM GRACE. WE HAVE JUST RECEIVED (F1AY 2016) THE LATEST HIRHAM5- DOWNSCALED ERA-INTERIM CLIMATE FROM RUTH MOTTRAM (DMI) THAT WILL PROVIDE CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR THESE SIMULATIONS. 3. PROGNOSTIC SIMULATIONS. USING THE SIMULATIONS FROM THE CALIBRATION PROCEDURE AS INITIAL STATES WE WILL PERFORM PROGNOSTIC SIMULATIONS OF THE 21ST AND 22ND CENTURY EXTENDING UNTIL THE 25TH CENTURY FOR SELECTED SIMULATIONS. THE FOCUS OF THESE SIMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ROLE OF DYNAMIC MASS LOSS. CLIMATE PROJECTIONS WILL BE OBTAINED BY COMBINING THE SPATIAL VARIABILITY IN CLIMATE FROM THE HIRHAM ERA-INTERIM HINDCASTS WITH GCM-PROJECTED CHANGES IN MEAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION.

$69,240FY2016National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA

University Of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks AK

Investigators

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