RECENT RESEARCH HAS FOCUSED ON IDENTIFYING MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND DISEASE INCIDENCE. HOWEVER METHODOLOGIES FOR INCORPORATING WEATHER FORECAST DATA INTO PATHOGEN TRANSMISSION MODELS ARE UNDERDEVELOPED AND UNTESTED. THIS STUDY SEEKS TO INCORPORATE WEATHER FORECASTS AND REPORTED DENGUE FEVER(DF) AND CHIKUNGUNYA VIRUS (CHIKV) CASE DATA INTO A DYNAMIC MOSQUITO POPULATION AND VIRUS TRANSMISSION MODEL TO CREATE A SYSTEM TO FORECAST DISEASE CASE NUMBERS IN CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES. WEATHER FORECASTS WHICH WILL DRIVE THE MODEL WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE SHORT TERM PREDICTION RESEARCH AND TRANSITION (SPORT) FACILITY IN ZP11 USING THE WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING (WRF) NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) SYSTEM ENHANCED USING ADDITIONAL HIGH RESOLUTION NASA DATASETS. PRIOR WEEKLY DV AND CHIKV CASE DATA FROM THE PAN AMERICAN HEALTH ORGANIZATION (PAHO) AND THE PUERTO RICO DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH (PRDH) WILL BE USED TO REPARAMETERIZE THE MODEL BEFORE EACH NEW DISEASE FORECAST SO THAT THE MOST UP TO DATE AND RELEVANT INFORMATION INFORMS THE FORECASTS. PREDICTIONS WILL BE EVALUATED AGAINST REPORTED DF AND CHIKV CASE DATA AT THE MUNICIPALITY AND REGIONAL LEVEL IN PUERTO RICO AND AT THE COUNTRY LEVEL IN THE OTHER CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THIS PROJECT WILL PRODUCE A PROTOTYPE FOR AN INNOVATIVE VECTOR BORNE DISEASE FORECAST SYSTEM AND PROVIDE A MUCH NEEDED ASSESSMENT OF THE FEASIBILITY ACCURACY AND CURRENT LIMITATIONS OF VECTOR-BORNE DISEASE FORECASTING FOR USE BY PUBLIC HEALTH AGENCIES AND OFFICIALS.
$11,916FY2016National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA
University Of Washington, Seattle WA