WE PROPOSE A SUCCESSOR PROJECT CONTINUING OUR CURRENT MAP PROJECT WHICH IS FOCUSED ON THE SIMULATION OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) AND TROPICAL CYCLONES (TCS) IN THE NASA GODDARD INSTITUTE FOR SPACE STUDIES (GISS) CLIMATE MODEL. THE OBJECTIVES OF THE NEW PROJECT WILL BE AS FOLLOWS:1. CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE SIMULATIONS OF THE MJO AND TCS IN THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE MODEL AS THEY DEVELOP INCLUDING THE MOST HIGH-RESOLUTION VERSIONS (WHICH WE EXPECT TO HAVE THE BEST SIMULATIONS OF TCS);2. EVALUATE THE BIASES IN THE MEAN TROPICAL CLIMATE TOGETHER WITH THOSE IN THE MJO AND TCS IN DIFFERENT MODEL VARIANTS (ESP. WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE CONVECTIVE AND CLOUD PARAMETERIZATIONS) INCLUDING IN COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE SIMULATIONS AND ATTEMPT TO FIND CONVECTIVE AND CLOUD SCHEMES WHICH RETAIN GOOD MJO AND TC SIMULATIONS WITHOUT DEGRADING THE MEAN CLIMATE;3. UNDERSTAND IN GREATER DEPTH THE DYNAMICS OF THE SIMULATED MJO AND TCS INCLUDING FOCUSING ON SPECIFIC OBSERVED EVENTS; 4. ASSESS THE IMPACTS OF THE MJO ON EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION AND WEATHER IN THE MODEL INCLUDING PRECIPITATION EXTREMES; 5. ANALYZE THE CHANGES IN THE MJO TCS AND RELATED PRECIPITATION EXTREMES IN A CLIMATE WHICH IS CHANGING DUE TO GREENHOUSE GAS INCREASES AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED AEROSOL AND CLOUD FEEDBACKS.THIS PROJECT INVOLVES SIMULATION WITH BOTH ATMOSPHERIC AND COUPLED VERSIONS OF THE MODEL AT A RANGE OF HORIZONTAL RESOLUTIONS WITH THE HIGHEST BEING 0.5X0.5 DEGREES. THE TC WORK WILL USE PRIMARILY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS (1X1 AND 0.5X0.5 DEGREES) WHILE THE MJO WORK WILL FOCUS ON LOWER-RESOLUTION MODELS WITH CONVECTION SCHEMES MODIFIED TO PRODUCE THE MJO.FOR THE FIRST TIME IN RECENT YEARS GISS MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED WHICH CAN SIMULATE THE MJO AND TCS WITH SOME FIDELITY. THE IMPROVEMENT IN TC SIMULATION RESULTED FROM RESOLUTION INCREASES THE IMPROVEMENT IN MJO SIMULATION FROM CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION CHANGES MADE BY US IN OUR CURRENT PROJECT. THE FOCUS OF OUR MODEL DEVELOPMENT EFFORT IN THE PROPOSED PROJECT WILL BE TO IMPROVE ON THE REMAINING WEAKNESSES IN THE SIMULATIONS (PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO THE MJO AND MEAN CLIMATE BIASES WHICH RESULT WHEN THE CONVECTIVE SCHEME IS ALTERED TO IMPROVE IT) WHILE RETAINING THE STRENGTHS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. AT THE SAME TIME WE WILL USE THE EXISTING MODELS OR ANY SUPERIOR ONES WHICH MAY BE DEVELOPED IN THE COURSE OF THE PROJECT TO ADDRESS KEY SCIENCE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MJO TCS AND THE RELATION OF BOTH TO A CHANGING CLIMATE. A COMPONENT OF THE WORK INVOLVES CONTINUED PARTICIPATION IN INTERCOMPARISON PROJECTS INCLUDING THOSE CARRIED OUT FOR THE US CLIVAR WORKING GROUP ON HURRICANES AND CLIMATE YEAR OF TROPICAL CONVECTION (YOTC) AND DYNAMICS OF THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (DYNAMO) FIELD PROGRAM.THIS PROJECT ADDRESSES THE FOCUS IN THE SOLICITATION ON IMPROVING "REPRESENTATION OF THE WEATHER-TO-CLIMATE CONTINUUM OF HIGH IMPACT EVENTS SUCH AS TROPICAL SYSTEMS FLOODS DROUGHTS HEAT WAVES AND EXTREME STORMS". MORE BROADLY IT ADDRESSES NASA S STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE TO ADVANCE EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE TO MEET THE CHALLENGES OF CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; AND THE EARTH SCIENCE RESEARCH PROGRAM S GOAL TO DISTINGUISH NATURAL FROM HUMAN-INDUCED CAUSES OF CHANGE AND TO UNDERSTAND AND PREDICT THECONSEQUENCES OF CHANGE . THE GISS MODEL IS ONE OF NASA S PRIMARY TOOLS FOR MEETING THESE OBJECTIVES AND ONE OF THE TWO FOCI OF THE MAP PROGRAM. THE MJO AND TCS ARE KEY PHENOMENA WHICH MAY CHANGE IN A WARMER CLIMATE IN WAYS WHICH REMAIN POORLYCONSTRAINED. BY ANALYZING THE MODEL S PERFORMANCE IN SIMULATING THESE PHENOMENA AT PRESENT UNDERSTANDING THE MECHANISMS OPERATING IN THE MODELS STUDYING THE CHANGES IN FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SIMULATIONS AND USING THIS KNOWLEDGE TO IMPROVE THE SIMULATIONS VIA PARAMETERIZATION DEVELOPMENT OUR PROPOSED PROJECT WILL BRING NASA CLOSER TO ACHIEVING THESE GOALS.
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