UPWELLING DURING AUSTRAL WINTER INDUCES COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) SOUTH OF JAVA AND THE LESSER SUNDA ISLANDS. WHEN THIS UPWELLING IS UNUSUALLY STRONG THE RESULTING COOL SST ANOMALIES ARE AN INTEGRAL PART OF THE CLIMATE MODE KNOWN AS THE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE (IOD). THE FIRST DISTINCT STAGE OF A POSITIVE IOD OR IOD+ EVENT IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOMALOUSLY ENHANCED UPWELLING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAVA. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE DOMINANT MECHANISM(S) THAT INITIATE AND SUSTAIN THIS ENHANCED UPWELLING. A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THESE KELVIN WAVES MIGHT BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF ANOMALOUSLY ENHANCED UPWELLING SOUTH OF JAVA. A SALINITY-STRATIFIED BARRIER LAYER WEST OF SUMATRA MAY ALSO NEED TO ERODE BEFORE ANOMALOUSLY COOL SURFACE WATERS CAN SPREAD TO THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND AN IOD+ EVENT FULLY DEVELOP. USING BOTH SIMULATIONS OF THE PARALLEL OCEAN PROGRAM (POP) GLOBAL OCEAN MODEL AND SATELLITE DATA THE PROPOSED WORK WILL EXAMINE THE ROLE OF KELVIN WAVES AND THE SALINITY-STRATIFIED BARRIER LAYER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF IOD+ EVENTS. THIS RESEARCH WILL ADDRESS THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS: (1) HOW DOES THE BALANCE OF MIXED LAYER PROCESSES (HORIZONTAL OR VERTICAL ADVECTION ENTRAINMENT DIFFUSION TURBULENT MIXING AIR-SEA EXCHANGE) IN THE SUNDA ISLAND COASTAL REGION CHANGE DURING YEARS WHEN AN IOD+ EVENT DEVELOPS? (2) ARE KELVIN WAVES REMOTELY FORCED BY WINDS IN THE EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF MIXED LAYER COOLING SOUTH OF JAVA AT THE ONSET OF IOD+ EVENTS? (3) WHAT DOMINANT MECHANISM(S) ERODE OR THIN THE BARRIER LAYER WEST OF SUMATRA DURING IOD+ EVENTS AND CAN CHANGES IN THESE MECHANISM(S) INFLUENCE A DEVELOPING IOD+ EVENT? TO COMPARE THE INFLUENCE OF KELVIN WAVES TO OTHER POSSIBLE INFLUENCES ON MIXED LAYER TEMPERATURE AND SALINITY HIGH-RESOLUTION OCEAN MODEL SIMULATION OUTPUT WILL BE USED TO CALCULATE MASS- AND HEAT-CONSERVING BUDGETS OF TEMPERATURE AND SALINITY FOR THE SUNDA ISLAND UPWELLING REGION. THESE MIXED LAYER BUDGETS WILL BE CALCULATED FOR THREE REGIONS: (1) WEST OF SUMATRA (2) SOUTH OF JAVA AND(3) SOUTH OF LOMBOK STRAIT. TO MORE SPECIFICALLY QUANTIFY THE KELVIN WAVE INFLUENCE ON THE MIXED LAYER THE HORIZONTAL/VERTICAL COMPONENTS OF MIXED LAYER VELOCITY DUE TO KELVIN WAVES WILL BE APPROXIMATED BY APPLYING LINEAR WAVE THEORY TO MERIDIONAL/CROSSSHORE SSH PROFILES.IN ORDER TO VERIFY THAT THE MODELS ARE SIMULATING THE SURFACE STATE VARIABLES OF IOD+ YEARS REALISTICALLY SST SSH AND SEA SURFACE SALINITY WILL BE COMPARED WITH SATELLITE DATA. INTERCOMPARISONS OF AVISO SSH MEASUREMENTS WITH THE CROSS-CALIBRATED MULTI PLATFORM (CCMP) COMPOSITE SCATTEROMETER PRODUCT FOR SURFACE WIND AND SST DATA FROM AVHRR SENSORS WILL HELP INDEPENDENTLY CLARIFY THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SURFACE WIND FORCING KELVIN WAVES AND SST CHANGES IN THE SUNDA ISLAND UPWELLING REGION. FINALLY SEA SURFACE SALINITY DATA COLLECTED BY THE AQUARIUS MISSION DURING THE MODERATELY-STRONG 2012 IOD+ EVENT WILL BE COMPARED WITH COMPOSITE MODEL SALINITY BUDGETS TO ESTIMATE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCES ON BARRIER LAYER CHANGES OFF SUMATRA IN 2012. THE SCOPE OF THIS STUDY IS CONSISTENT WITH NASA EARTH SCIENCE DIVISION'S FOCUS ON CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE AS IT SEEKS TO HELP SOLIDIFY OUR UNDERSTANDING OF A MAJOR MODE OF INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY IN THE OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERE. THANKS TO RECENT ADVANCES IN MODEL RESOLUTION AND THE EXTENSIVE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF SATELLITES BOTH OCEAN MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS CAN NOW RESOLVE COASTAL KELVIN WAVES IN THE TROPICS CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR VALUABLE NEW INSIGHTS INTO A PART OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM WITH WIDE-RANGING IMPACTS.
$90,000FY2014National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA
University Of California San Diego, La Jolla CA