Empirical Foundations of Deterrence

Emory University, Atlanta GA

Investigators

Abstract

Part 1: This project employs modern social science methods to investigate the micro-foundations of deterrence, providing rigorous, causal evidence on the effectiveness of different strategies. Deterrence is a critical component of security, yet there remains significant uncertainty about when and how defensive actions can prevent conflicts from escalating. By integrating quasi-experimental designs, randomized controlled trials, and artificial intelligence data collection and analysis, the project generates insights into how resolve is built, communicated, and interpreted in real-world contexts. These findings not only contribute to academic debates but also inform decision makers in the United States and allied nations about the conditions under which deterrence strategies succeed or fail. This project empirically tests key aspects of deterrence theory with attention to causal inference. First, it examines the effects of a real policy reform, using a quasi-experimental design to assess how the reform shapes resolve. Second, a field experiment evaluates how participation in civil defense training programs influences perceptions of national identity, efficacy, and deterrent capability. Third, the project leverages survey experiments to measure the credibility of deterrent signals, as well as whether key actors in potential aggressor states accurately perceive these signals. Lastly, the project uses artificial intelligence to collect and analyze data to assess the structure and timing of deterrence-related communication, including official statements and mass sentiment across digital platforms. The theoretical frameworks and methodological innovations are broadly applicable to many conflict-prone regions. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.