CAREER: Crop diversification, simplification traps and resilience in agricultural systems

University Of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia MO

Investigators

Abstract

Population growth and environmental change have increased concerns about the ability of agricultural systems to meet future food and fiber needs, and crop diversification has emerged as a favored approach to increasing agricultural resilience. Crop diversity has long been acknowledged to support greater agricultural system resilience, yet there are various barriers that pose obstacles to greater crop diversification. This project uses modeling, interviews, and historical data to investigate how self-reinforcing crop "simplification traps" develop and alter the structure of the interconnected farm-community landscapes. The project informs development of diversification strategies that build the sustainability and resilience of agricultural systems and rural communities, and develops public datasets and educational activities for college education and public engagement. Recent work suggests that socio-technical lock-in presents challenges to crop diversification efforts. However, there is little quantitative evidence documenting how crop diversity operates within a system of interdependent farms and rural communities to alter system agroecosystem resilience. This project advances knowledge by examining current conditions and historic trajectories that have influenced farm structure, crop diversity, and the rural communities to which they are tied. The project 1) identifies and characterizes "simplification traps" using change-point analysis of agricultural census and archival data, 2) explores processes that lead to the production of "simplification traps" using statistical inference, interviews, and agent-based simulation, and 3) explores changes in resilience and pathway diversity associated with "simplification traps". The project contributes to an understanding of farm-community connections and the non-linear impacts of environmental change on rural development. Findings inform development of tools for identifying and monitoring at-risk systems and contribute to the development of interventions that support greater resilience of agricultural systems and rural communities. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.