Integrating legacy effects of past disturbance and climate into stochastic population dynamics in a changing world

Kansas State University, Manhattan KS

Investigators

Abstract

Many fire-dependent ecosystems have suffered from historical fire suppression, resulting in substantial consequences for the species living in these systems. For example, historical fire suppression tends to result in substantial fuel buildup between fires, so that when fires do occur, they can be intense, likely resulting in large impacts on species in these communities. At the same time, the environment in many ecosystems is predicted to change dramatically, which also affects species in these ecosystems (as well as the rate of fuel buildup, which will modify fire intensity). Predictions of species’ abundances, a commonly used way of assessing potential impacts of threats on a species, often include predictions of current fire effects and climate effects alone, but such predictions rarely incorporate joint effects of current fires, fire suppression, and climate. This research will test how historical and current fire frequencies might alter abundances of a charismatic species, the Venus flytrap, in a future climate and how these environmental drivers might interact with one another to produce unexpected effects. Such efforts are critical to predicting species’ abundances in fire-dependent ecosystems, particularly in areas that have suffered from historical fire suppression. This research aims to build on an ongoing long-term, multi-site demographic study conducted across the range of the Venus flytrap (Dionaea muscipula), which depends on fire to maintain its longleaf pine savanna habitat. The research will estimate the demographic effects of current fires and explore how legacies of historical fire frequency modulate these effects, all while considering additional simultaneous effects of local environmental conditions. The work strives to identify mechanisms of legacy effects by estimating fire intensity and climate-dependent rates of fuel buildup before and after fires, and quantifying the resultant effects on stochastic population dynamics of Venus flytrap. In addition to providing insights into the mechanisms driving legacy effects, this work will also allow us to predict disturbance effects under future environmental conditions for a charismatic species. This project is jointly funded by Population and Community Ecology, and the Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR). This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.