Investigating Roman Era, Black Death, and Industrial Era Pollution Sources Using Inverse Modeling of Lead Isotopes in an Array of High-Resolution Arctic Ice Cores

Nevada System Of Higher Education, Desert Research Institute, Reno NV

Investigators

Abstract

For the past 2500 years, mining, smelting of ores, coal combustion, and burning of oil and gasoline have been the primary contributors of lead pollution in the Northern Hemisphere. Records of lead deposition from polar and alpine ice cores have shown that the total amount of lead pollution over the past two millennia is correlated to major historical events, but the understanding of specific emissions sources and how they have changed over time is uncertain as it relies primarily on incomplete historical data. Lead isotopes, which have a chemical signature specific to an emissions source, are a tool that can allow researchers to better constrain potential sources of atmospheric lead pollution. By analyzing lead isotopes found within ice cores, and combining such measurements with sophisticated atmospheric aerosol modeling, this research will refine estimates of lead emissions and their specific sources during pivotal historical periods such as Roman Antiquity, the Late Middle Ages, and Industrialization. By quantifying emissions from individual sources, it promises to reshape the current understanding of how historical events—such as plagues, social upheavals, and advancements in mining technology—have intersected with economic activities and shaped human history over the past two millennia. Lead isotopes will be measured in discrete meltwater samples collected from six geographically distinct ice cores from the Arctic (Greenland and Müller Ice Cap), North America (Mt. Logan, Eclipse Ice Field, and South Cascade Glacier) and Europe (Col du Dome). These high resolution, spatially distinct ice core lead isotopic records, combined with previously established lead isotopic records from Greenland, will be used to quantify atmospheric emission inventories using state-of-the-art atmospheric transport and deposition modeling. Interpretation of these new records will leverage collaborations between ice core researchers, atmospheric scientists, ancient historians, and archaeologists. This work will represent the first application of inverse modeling to quantify Pb emissions from individual sources. These emission source quantifications of atmospheric Pb have the potential to transform understanding of how historical events such as plague, social upheaval and technological advancements in mining and smelting have affected economic activities and human history over recent millennia. The project team will develop curriculum on Polar Science aligned with Next Generation Science Standards for Nevada schools, as part of the Desert Research Institute’s Green Box program. This curriculum will offer hands-on activities centered around interpreting climate and historical data extracted from ice core records, fostering a deeper understanding of both scientific and historical concepts among students. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.