Postdoctoral Fellowship: PRFB: Predicting the effects of climate change on insect phenotypes, populations, and communities

Belitz, Michael W, Gainesville FL

Investigators

Abstract

This action funds an NSF Postdoctoral Research Fellowship in Biology for FY 2024, Integrative Research Investigating the Rules of Life Governing Interactions Between Genomes, Environment, and Phenotypes. The fellowship supports research and training of the fellow that will contribute to the area of Rules of Life in innovative ways. Climate change is transforming ecosystems, and many insects are responding to changes in temperature by shifting their body size and seasonal activity patterns. Although such shifts have been widely documented, the costs and benefits of such responses to temperature variation remain a mystery. The primary aim of this research is to evaluate how climate change impacts the body size and developmental timing of insects across the United States, explicitly testing how a species’ ability to shift their body size or developmental timing correlates to population trends over recent decades. The research will be accompanied by education activities focused on designing and teaching introductory data science courses for graduate students and a quantitative ecology seminar for professional ecologists. Outreach activities will also be developed to teach K-12 students about biodiversity and conservation. This research aims to 1) build a spatiotemporal model to estimate phenological (adult activity timing) and morphological (body size) sensitivity to temperature variation; 2) quantify the effects of phenotype and environmental context on population dynamics; 3) determine how phenotypic sensitivity to temperature affects population and community trends given environmental change context. These objectives will be accomplished by integrating two key national-level datasets: National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) data on ground beetles sampled from pitfall traps and butterfly survey data from multiple monitoring networks. Together, the objectives will provide a modeling framework to determine how climate change impacts the body size and phenology of individual insects and, furthermore, how the interactions between phenotype and environment affect population and community trends. The fellow will receive training in Bayesian hierarchical modeling, working with NEON data, and pedagogy. The work also includes activities that aim to broaden participation in science. The fellow will design and implement training on geospatial analysis and best practices of using NEON ground beetle data. Additionally, the fellow will extend and lead outreach modules that teach K-12 students how mathematical models can help understand the many threats facing insects and how adjusting landscape, climate, and other environmental conditions can influence population trends. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.