Is Unrealistic Optimism Good or Bad? Two Naturalistic Studies

University Of Florida, Gainesville FL

Investigators

Abstract

Unrealistic optimism is the tendency for people to overestimate the chances that good things will happen to them and underestimate the chances that bad things will happen to them. Unrealistic optimism influences people's decisions about many aspects of life, such as in health, education, and the workplace. Researchers, however, do not know whether unrealistic optimism is helpful or harmful in these situations. Unrealistic optimism might impair decision making and stop people from trying other options. On the other hand, unrealistic optimism might help people cope with challenges or find motivation for difficult tasks. By learning whether unrealistic optimism is helpful or harmful, this study show educators, managers, and coaches how to help everyone make great decisions and have the best chances of success. This study aims to reconcile contradictions in prior research by determining whether unrealistic optimism helps or hurts and explaining why. The study distinguishes between different outcomes of unrealistic optimism (focal, alternative, and tertiary outcomes) and measures unrealistic optimism by comparing participants’ expectations to data-based predictions. The study follows minor league baseball players attempting to reach the Major League Baseball for 3 years and high school juniors attempting to get into college for 2 years. Bayesian model testing determines how unrealistic optimism affects focal outcomes (reaching Major League Baseball, getting accepted to top universities) and influences alternatives. The study also measures variables that explain the consequences of unrealistic optimism. Results from this research have the potential to reconcile debates in social science by testing competing hypotheses, collecting new, insightful data, and introducing an overarching framework that can accommodate conflicting evidence and organize future research on unrealistic optimism. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.