D-ISN: Constraining Illicit Decision Making Within and Across Dynamic Supply Networks

University Enterprises Corporation At Csusb, San Bernardino CA

Investigators

Abstract

The objective of this Disrupting Operations of Illicit Supply Networks (D-ISN) research study is to develop and evaluate an integrated theory of illicit decision making. This research examines how, when, and why individuals choose to engage in legitimate versus illicit activities to maximize profits or gain a competitive advantage within their industry. Using a network approach, the project investigates how individual decisions to comply with or disregard laws and regulations affect the decisions of other actors within a supply network. The findings will identify targeted interventions that can be enacted through laws, policies, regulations, and business practices to constrain the benefits gained by actors engaging in illicit activity. This project serves the national interest by advancing new ways to create policies and practices to support national prosperity by constraining illicit decision making and will promote the progress of science to encourage new dialogues among stakeholders to find ways to disrupt illicit activities within a supply network. The project takes a multidisciplinary perspective, with PIs from the fields of criminology, business and supply chains, and operations research. This project uses a networked agent-based model (NABM) to simulate illicit decision making at the transaction level among a networked community of competing legitimate, criminal, and illicit-susceptible actors. Applying theories of competition, the project utilizes the rational choice perspective of offender decision making within a utility maximization framework to model the competitive dynamics underpinning illicit supply networks. This research will develop initial models based on characteristics of the massage therapy industry, and the findings will be extended in applied to other industries that also involve illicit supply networks, such as agriculture, pharmaceutical drugs, and counterfeit items. This project will expose two fundamental issues essential for understanding and disrupting illicit supply networks: (1) the competitive dynamics affecting consumers and suppliers that drive criminal activities; and (2) the role that civil, criminal, and for-profit business regulations play in shifting market conditions. The project team will engage with collaborators from academia, industry, and law enforcement to develop a generalizable, domain-agnostic framework to direct ISN disruption strategies to constrain the cost-benefit calculation of potential offenders. The project will educate graduate students within a multi-disciplinary environment who will be capable of addressing complex societal issues. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.