Conference: Attribution of Extreme Weather and Climate Events and their Impacts

National Academy Of Sciences, Washington DC

Investigators

Abstract

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (National Academies) will conduct a consensus study that examines current scientific capabilities for attributing extreme weather events and their impacts to human-caused climate change. Extreme weather events—for example, drought, wildfires, extreme heat, and hurricanes—are accelerating in their frequency, magnitude, and impacts on the global community. Impacts from these events can have devastating consequences to natural resources, ecosystems, communities, infrastructure, economies, livelihoods, and human health. Given the significance of extreme weather events, it is critical to improve capabilities to assess and forecast future extreme events and identify strategies to better communicate this science with the public. This activity will inform a broad audience, including governments and regulatory agencies globally, the scientific community, corporate and non-profit entities, the media and science communicators, the legal field, and real estate investment interests. The study will help decision makers and other stakeholders assess the extent to which extreme weather events can be attributed to climate change, identify priorities to improve scientific capabilities, and may inform legal and financial consequences as part of “loss and damage”—policies that support vulnerable countries’ management of impacts from climate change. In particular, the attention of this study to extending scientific tools to regions without well-established capacity could support efforts of frontline communities to manage the impacts of climate change. Building on a 2016 National Academies report that examined the state of extreme weather attribution, an ad hoc committee of experts will author a consensus report that will: provide an updated assessment of current scientific understanding and capabilities; explore the value and utility of attribution science for different applications; assess current capabilities for the attribution of impacts of extreme weather events to climate change; examine methodologies of extreme event attribution, identify challenges, and provide guidance for best practices; provide guidance for engaging different stakeholders; and identify research priorities. The committee will be responsible for gathering and reviewing relevant literature and using its expert judgment to synthesize this information into a consensus report. As input to the study, the committee will organize a large workshop to broadly engage the community of scientists conducting relevant research and stakeholders who will ultimately use this information. The final consensus report will be available publicly upon release via the National Academies Press website and information about the report and its recommendations will be shared broadly with key stakeholder communities. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.