DISES: Coupled Socio-Ecological Mobility in the Coastal Zone

Virginia Polytechnic Institute And State University, Blacksburg VA

Investigators

Abstract

Conditions in coastal environments are changing due to more frequent and severe flooding. The future sustainability of coastal zones will depend on the ability of both the human and natural systems to co-migrate inland as sea level rise (SLR) increases. However, the amount of suitable space available for the migration of natural habitats is decreasing due to development pressures, resulting in coastal squeeze. This project investigates the potential for co-migration of socioecological systems affected by coastal squeeze in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coastal region in response to SLR and different decision-making pathways. First, it measures the extent and types of coastal squeeze using geospatial analysis. Next, it identifies considerations affecting human mobility in flood-prone coastal communities and policy barriers to supporting coordinated socioecological mobility. Lastly, the project integrates produced outputs via statistical ordination and development of the Co-mobility Indices Matrix and Report cards to provide stakeholders with a structured way to assess the current and future coastal squeeze and potential mobility patterns in their localities. This research will advance science on coastal socioecological migration and provide policy-relevant empirical evidence on the mobility patterns of these two systems, informing coastal management and land use decisions. Coastal squeeze is already present in many coastal settings and will only worsen with accelerated SLR and more frequent storm-surge flooding. At the same time, knowledge about the implications of a potential mismatch between migration rates of natural versus human habitats is currently lacking for most coastal systems. This project will evaluate scenarios of socioecological migration and different household and policy decisions in the Mid-Atlantic region. The project goals are to: 1) determine the current and future extent and configurations of coastal squeeze affecting marsh and human systems in the coastal zone based on projected SLR up to 2050 using geospatial modeling; 2) characterize the potential for SLR-driven human migration based on household- and place-based characteristics, preferences, and available support mechanisms using primary data collection (multi-modal surveys and workshops); and 3) identify mobility drivers in natural and human systems for the management and future scenarios of coastal squeeze using statistical ordination and development of the Co-mobility Indices Matrix (Co-MIM) and summary scorecards. Results will advance basic understanding of co-migration of coupled natural and human systems affected by coastal squeeze and internal and external forces modifying interactions between them in response to different policy decisions. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.