Collaborative Research: Constraining Pliocene North Pacific marine heatwave variability from individual foraminifera Mg/Ca

Western Washington University, Bellingham WA

Investigators

Abstract

Marine heatwaves are extended periods of above average ocean temperature. They can have large social and economic impacts. The frequency and duration of marine heatwaves is thought to be increasing, but little data exists to evaluate such trends. This project will place marine heatwaves in a broader context by reconstructing heatwave variability during the late Pliocene. That warm time period roughly 2.6 to 3.6 million years ago is a geologic analog for near future climate. Results from this project will provide data to evaluate climate model simulations. That will help improve model forecasts of future climate, including marine heatwaves. The project will support a graduate student at Western Washington University and a postdoc at the University of Washington. The project will also support development of college-level teaching modules focused on climate, and outreach efforts to inform the public about the causes and consequences of marine heatwaves. This project will explore marine heatwave behavior in the north Pacific, where a heatwave event from 2014-2016 was likely the most ecologically and economically impactful ever. Using element/calcium ratios of individual Globigerina bulloides foraminifera, the project will generate distributions of sea surface temperature from which the fingerprint of marine heatwaves can be extracted using quantile-quantile analysis. By comparing reconstructions from the Holocene to those during the mid-Piacenzian warm period at multiple core sites, the project will characterize the behavior of north Pacific marine heatwaves during the preindustrial and a geologic analog for future climate, thereby providing a valuable target for improving climate models. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.