CEDAR: Examining the vertical structures of ionosphere-atmosphere coupling using decadal observations and ionospheric models

University Of California-Riverside, Riverside CA

Investigators

Abstract

The ionosphere protects life on Earth by shielding cosmic rays, energetic particles, X rays, and extreme UV from the Sun. The ionosphere also enables communication by reflecting radio high-frequency transmissions. However, disturbances due to natural variabilities on vastly different time scales, such as the solar cycles and the solar flares from above, or the tidal waves and the anthropogenic CO2 effects from below, may disrupt the stability of the ionosphere, and interfere with civilian activities, such as navigation, emergency services, precision farming, and artificial satellite systems. Thus, an accurate space weather prediction must be able to predict the impacts of the natural variabilities. This project studies the ionospheric variabilities in ground-based and satellite observations and uses state-of-the-art models to better understand the impacts of the solar electromagnetic changes and the climate forcings on the predictability of the ionospheric variabilities. An undergraduate research assistant will be hired to perform some of the data analyses using machine-learning tools. Annual field trips to a local national lab facility in Los Angeles for undergraduates will be taken to promote aeronomy sciences among under-represented groups in Southern California. The goal of this investigation is to advance our understanding of the influence of solar and lower atmospheric disturbances on the global ionosphere, with particular focus on interannual variabilities related to the solar cycles, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The team will study vertical structures of these variabilities using International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) reanalysis data and satellite observations from the last two decades, including NASA's GRACE, NSF-sponsored COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3 and COSMIC-2/FORMOSAT-7, and German Aerospace Center's CHAMP satellite instruments. They will derive the vertical structures of electron density related to the solar cycles, QBO, ENSO, and PDO using IRI reanalysis and satellite data and compare these observations with NCAR's TIME-GCM and WACCM-X standard simulations. The observed interannual variabilities will be diagnosed using tidal wave fluxes and machine-learning tools. The interannual variabilities in ionospheric electron density will be simulated using customized TIME-GCM and WACCM-X models to elucidate the chemo-dynamical connections of the ionosphere with solar electromagnetic changes and climate forcing. Thorough knowledge of the interannual impacts on the chemical and dynamical components can help to improve the space weather forecasts on monthly to decadal timescales. This project is co-funded through a collaboration between the Directorate for Geosciences and Office of Advanced Cyberinfrastructure to support AI/ML and open science activities in the geosciences. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.