OCE-PRF: Uncovering the drivers of marine metapopulation synchrony and resilience under climate change

University Of Kansas Center For Research Inc, Lawrence KS

Investigators

Abstract

Ocean ecosystems form a major component of the US culture and economy. Climate change is bringing more large-scale environmental shocks to ocean ecosystems, such as heat waves and disruptions in nutrient supply. This project will determine the conditions under which large-scale environmental shocks could propagate into large-scale declines of ecologically important and commercially valuable marine species on the US East and West coasts. Specifically, the project will combine emerging quantitative methods with large-scale fisheries and environmental monitoring data to identify (1) which biological and environmental features prevent large-scale declines in species abundance at present, and (2) whether this resilience will remain under future climate regimes. This research will also develop existing data-driven mathematical approaches to understanding and forecasting synchronous changes in large ecosystems. In the process, the project PI will train and involve under-represented minority and first-generation students in data science and cutting-edge statistical analyses applied to ocean data. Increasing frequency and spatial scales of extreme environmental events can cause population abundances to fluctuate in unison across locations (synchrony). Synchrony erodes population resilience by weakening portfolio and rescue effects and amplifying the risk of a large-scale collapse. Theory posits an array of population features that can prevent synchrony in metapopulations (e.g., location-specific ecological dynamics, nonlinear population response to environment), only some of which continue to operate as climate change intensifies environmental variation. Methodological constraints, however, hinder current efforts to quantify these synchrony-moderating features in the field. Applying new nonparametric time-delay embedding methods to spatiotemporal data spanning an array of species and two ecosystems, this project will develop a new approach that identifies (1) which features hold back synchrony in large marine ecosystems at present and (2) whether this resilience will continue under expected climatic changes. More generally, the approach pioneered here aims to help shift empirical research from describing synchrony in population and environment time series towards understanding mechanisms underpinning observed synchrony patterns. This would help understand and anticipate large-scale changes in ecosystems and the numerous services they provide. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.