Postdoctoral Research Fellowship in Biology: Predicting Extinction Risk across Tree Pangolin Populations

Tinsman Jen C, West Hollywood CA

Investigators

Abstract

This action funds an NSF Postdoctoral Research Fellowship in Biology for FY 2022, Integrative Research Investigating the Rules of Life Governing Interactions Between Genomes, Environment and Phenotypes. The fellowship supports research and training of the fellow that will contribute to the area of Rules of Life in innovative ways. Climate changes poses a grave threat to global biodiversity. Understanding which species are most at risk of extinction can help guide the allocation of limited conservation resources. Estimating a species’ extinction risk from climate change requires an understanding of their exposure to changing climate and of their ability to adapt to new conditions. However, current assessments of vulnerability to climate change usually only consider the risk from exposure, often because determining a species’ ability to adapt to novel climate is challenging. This research will develop a framework for studying how species adapt to local climate conditions and for quantifying the mismatch between those adaptations and future climate conditions. This framework will be used to estimate species’ extinction risk from climate change. The fellow will use the endangered tree pangolin (Phataginus tricuspis) as a case study. The tree pangolin is broadly distributed across several different climatic zones across Western and Central Africa and shows strong population genetic structure. Whole genomic data from across their range will be used to identify adaptive genomic variation associated with climate. These associations will be used to calculate the allelic mismatch between current and future climate, thus estimating genomic vulnerability to future climate change. Finally, the fellow will directly compare the amount of future habitat predicted by traditional, exposure-only models with that predicted by this adaptation-informed model to quantify how including evolutionary process changes predictions. By assessing extinction risk at the population level, this work will identify high-priority populations for conservation interventions. Actionable conservation recommendations will be shared with stakeholders working in the region. This work will produce a genomics pipeline for assessing extinction risk from climate change in other locally adapted populations. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.