RAPID: The Costs of Peace: War Experience, Territorial Loss, and Peace Agreement Consensus in Ukraine

George Mason University, Fairfax VA

Investigators

Abstract

The Russia-Ukraine War raises an important question about whether a stable peace settlement is possible. This project examines the question by tracing the ways that wartime experiences shape ordinary Ukrainians’ attitudes toward different peace settlement scenarios. It focuses specifically on how people’s experiences and characteristics shape their dispositions toward potential territorial concessions. Such concessions are presently recognized by all sides as part of the road toward peace. Yet, in light of great resistance and suffering, witnessing the death of friends and family members, and extraordinary destruction and displacement, the question can be raised whether ordinary Ukrainians accept the loss of further state territory as a necessary price for peace. Deeper understanding of how general populations assess the cost of peace can greatly inform preparation, negotiation and implementation of peace agreements by both national governments and international third parties. To advance understanding of how people’s wartime experiences influence their positions toward peace agreements requiring territorial concessions, this project seeks to uncover the social psychological processes and wartime experiences informing the dispositions of ordinary Ukrainians toward peace. The scholarly literature suggests divergent impacts of war experience on attitude towards the costs of peace. One line of evidence suggests that direct exposure to violence and destruction may increase Ukrainians’ perception of immediate threat, which may in turn increase their willingness to support territorial concessions as a means to end violent hostilities. Other lines of evidence suggest that anger, threats to Ukrainian identity and values, and desire to honor the sacrifice of those who died defending Ukrainian land, may harden attitudes toward territorial compromises. In this context, war may have made all Ukrainian territory a ‘sacred value’ (absolute and non-negotiable) to ordinary Ukrainians. This would reduce the possibility of territorial compromise, and make any settlement potentially unstable. This study uses multiple methods to explore the complex factors that come into play as people work to resolve these dilemmas. The project includes collection and quantitative analysis of survey data from a large sample of Ukrainians, including locals and internally displaced people, across three towns close to the regions where active fighting is taking place. The survey is used to identify small groups of citizens across the same three towns to participate in focus groups. These discussions provide further opportunity to learn about how citizens make sense of and assess tradeoffs associated with a potential peace agreement. Integrated analysis of the survey and group discussions inform the development of theoretical and practical implications for scholars, policymakers and practitioners focused on peace agreements. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.