SRS RN: Preparing for Just and Sustainable Climate Migration

University Of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst MA

Investigators

Abstract

Environmental change and disasters, such as repeated floods, wildfires, droughts, and extreme heat, are pushing U.S. residents to move from hazardous to safer locations. Early knowledge of likely domestic migration, before it is a crisis, can ensure the well-being of both movers and the receiving communities to which they go. This planning grant focuses on improving projections and planning for climate-related population movement, with a particular focus on receiving areas of inland New England. The planning process involves refining the scientific model, gathering data sources, conducting a study pilot, strengthening the research team, and enhancing public engagement. This planning grant identifies paths toward incorporating climate stresses and economic/technical conditions into regional migration modeling. The project combines data on environmental change, demographic change, and population movement into dynamic, multidirectional systems simulations. Investigators evaluate conventional data sources such as the Internal Revenue Service, the American Community Survey, and the Current Population Survey, alongside novel data sources, such as moving truck rentals and online real-estate searches in hazard-prone areas. Interregional migration flows are analyzed using empirical and simulation-based models. A scenario planning workshop assesses the utility and perceived validity of the project’s data and methods for guiding local planning and policy decisions. The workshop brings together Regional Planning Agency (RPA) partners, Tribal Nations, and groups representing minoritized communities. Together, the scientific research and workshop build understanding of climate migration modeling as applied to local and regional communities. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.