CAREER: EAR-Climate: Impacts of Recent Wetting on Cold Region Hydrologic Change in the Northern Great Plains

University Of North Dakota Main Campus, Grand Forks ND

Investigators

Abstract

Recent increases in precipitation in the Northern Great Plains (NGP) have led to heavy streamflow and devastating flood events over the last three decades. However, it is not clear how the recent wetting has influenced hydrologic fluxes such as streamflow generation. In particular, the relationship between surface water storage and hydrologic processes during a complete dry-to-wet (drought-deluge) or wet-to-dry (deluge-drought) climatic cycle are not well understood. This study will fill this knowledge gap by simulating and analyzing hydrologic processes in this climate-sensitive region using a field-tested, physically-based cold region hydrologic model. This study will include a series of field-based cold region hydrology workshops and engage high school and college students in summer research. These activities will aid in the development of baseline data, inspire students in snow and water resources research, and raise awareness regarding the impact of changing climate on water security and quality. The objective of this study is to inform processes, behaviors, thresholds, functions, hysteresis patterns and feedbacks during the recent dry and wet climatic states through use of a field-tested physically-based model in five headwater basins draining to Devils Lake during 1990-2020 time period. Understanding the system's present and past behavior will advance understanding of the future cold region hydroclimatic response. Moreover, studying the hysteresis behavior of the cold region system is critical to predicting future change in a region expected to experience an altered wet and dry cycles throughout the 21st century. This project is jointly funded by Hydrologic Sciences and the Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR). This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.