CAREER: Space-time Variations in the Pace of Surface Temperature Change

University Of California-Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz CA

Investigators

Abstract

In climate change research and outreach, much of the discussion is centered around the amount of global warming the Earth is experiencing, i.e., by how much the climate has warmed. Equally important and relevant is the rate at which this warming occurs - how fast is the warming? The rate of warming fluctuates in space and time. Acceleration in the rate of warming is of primary concern since it might trigger climate change feedbacks. Furthermore, acceleration in the rate of warming can leave less time for species to adapt in the future, threaten biodiversity and ecosystem function, and impact communities’ ability to adapt and survive. The investigator will conduct statistical analysis of global climate observations to identify coherent regions and periods with accelerated rates of warming over the last two centuries. The investigator will then use model simulations to identify the causes of the detected changes (human, natural, or random) and to quantify future changes in the rate of warming through the end of this century. Two graduate students will be part of the research team. In concert with this research, the investigator will develop freely available, accessible, and equitable resources for students, educators, managers, policy makers, and the wider public. The investigator will develop an open source, interactive, digital book, as a resource for climate and environmental data science in the R programming language and help fill the gap in data science training in environmental sciences curricula, both at the undergraduate and graduate levels. A user-friendly dashboard will be developed with a team of undergraduate students to visualize and monitor the pace of temperature change for different regions of the world, including Indigenous ancestral lands. Through monitoring with the dashboard, regions with accelerated rates of warming can be identified, which will inform and extend the research as well as drive engagement with different stakeholder groups. Monitoring the rate of climate change is crucial for timely decisions by communities at risk, decision makers, and stakeholders. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.