Numeric self-efficacy, objective numeracy, and overconfidence

University Of Oregon Eugene, Eugene OR

Investigators

Abstract

Numbers are often used in decisions (e.g., choosing mortgages and health insurance plans). Previous research has shown that more objectively numerate people (they’re better at solving numeric problems) also make logically better decisions when numbers are involved. Having confidence in one’s numeric abilities also appears to support people persisting more with numbers, but little research exists on this point. In the present project, the research team will develop an improved objective numeracy measure and test hypotheses about how numeric confidence differs from intelligence (e.g., objective numeracy, nonnumeric intelligence) and overconfidence. Further, the team investigates how and when numeric confidence helps versus hurts people’s abilities to make good decisions. The studies are expected to promote the progress of science in judgment and decision making such that this improved scientific understanding will lead to better interventions to improve decision making about health and wealth. The investigators will use developed knowledge to work with public-facing groups about how to design messages to facilitate better decision making. This new knowledge will be integrated into the University of Oregon’s Center for Science Communication Research. Findings will be disseminated in academic and policy presentations and publications and to the public through The Conversation, radio, and newspapers. The present research builds on recent theory and findings to understand the separable psychological mechanisms of objective numeracy and numeric self-efficacy (i.e., confidence in one’s abilities). In nine experiments, the research team develop a more useable objective numeracy measure and test hypotheses about how numeric self-efficacy differs from objective numeracy, nonnumeric intelligence, and cognitive reflection and how it can help or hurt decision performance. In particular, the principal investigators seek to understand when and why numeric self-efficacy and objective numeracy interact in decision making vs act as main effects. The research will examine how decision performance can improve or decline through self-efficacy support, and the research team will test how numeric self-efficacy and overconfidence relate and develop and test ways to improve calibration. The team will examine implications for dual-process theories of decision making. It is expected that the proposed research will add substantially to understanding the psychological mechanisms underlying decisions involving numeric information and their impact on wellbeing. This understanding will lead to novel interventions to improve decision making. Policy makers and others generally assume that, if provided appropriate numbers, people will understand and use them appropriately. However, numbers can be misunderstood if they are not presented appropriately, and/or they may cause decision makers to disengage. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.