GEM: Developing a Highly Predictable Canonical Geomagnetic Index to Gauge Space Weather

Space Science Institute, Boulder CO

Investigators

Abstract

Geomagnetic indices are sensitive to diverse current systems, such as magnetospheric convection, auroral activity, and cross-polar-cap current. They are constructed from measurements, such as magnetic fields from ground magnetometers, and are used to characterize and predict geomagnetic activity. Magnetospheric activity, including geomagnetic storms, occurs in reaction to the solar wind. This project will devise a new geomagnetic index that more accurately predicts upstream solar-wind measurements. This will improve space weather predictions – important to preparing sensitive systems like satellites and high frequency communications for impacts from the dynamic space environment. A composite geomagnetic index will be derived that is highly predictable from a knowledge of the upstream solar wind. This “canonical” geomagnetic index will be constructed from multiple geomagnetic indices measuring different current systems and activity types in the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and will describe global activity. Once the index is derived, along with its canonical solar-wind driver function, superposed-epoch analysis and other statistical techniques will be used to familiarize the index by gauging coronal mass ejection driven storms, high-speed-stream-driven storms, substorms, and steady magnetospheric convection intervals. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.