Doctoral Dissertation Research: Protests and Concessions

Regents Of The University Of Michigan - Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor MI

Investigators

Abstract

This project addresses why autocratic regimes, which rely on coercion to retain power, promise concessions to protesters, and the contexts in which those promises affect policies. When an autocrat responds to a protest today with the promise of a policy change tomorrow, that promised concession is not fully credible: if protest ends before policy change is complete, the autocrat may renege, or deliberately fail to implement a promised concession. The autocrat can therefore exploit concessions to demobilize protest and ensure office retention, without real reform. The prospect of reneging directly affects the behavior of protesters, depending on their level of political knowledge, and their individual cost of protesting. Variation in these factors among protesters can make mobilization impossible to sustain once concessions are promised. This project provides expectations for when concessions are promised to citizens, as well as for conditions in which protest needs to be sustained after that promise to realize a benefit. The findings are relevant for citizens in autocracies and local and international organizations that support them, including the U.S. government. Improved understanding of the strategic purpose of concessions will provide policymakers better expectations over when an autocrat submits to protesters' demands out of weakness, and when they do so to enhance regime resilience. This project addresses three sets of questions: (1) Under what conditions do autocratic governments concede to protesters’ demands?; (2) Under what conditions does reneging, or the deliberate failure to deliver promised concessions, occur?; and (3) How do protesters strategically anticipate receipt of concessions? The project includes a formal model, two original datasets on protest and concessions, and interviews with activists in Moscow. Overall, this work provides a much-needed full theorization of concessions as a response to protest, including reneging. It generates novel insight into how protesters’ perception of the promise of concessions and the risk of reneging affects the ability to sustain mobilization. Finally, it contributes to scholarship on authoritarian resilience and stability. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.