Experimental Impacts of Intensive Municipal Governance and Community Organization on Gang Governance

University Of Chicago, Chicago IL

Investigators

Abstract

Criminal governance is increasingly common in Latin America, and elsewhere. How these organizations operate and how to combat them is a major frontier of political science, economics, criminology and public policy. Around the world, hundreds of millions of people live under the armed rule of criminal groups. These groups pose a major threat to governments, regional stability and the U.S. homeland. Yet we know relatively little about the organization of business and life under this armed rule. This is partly because criminal governance is often hiding in plain sight, in slums and urban peripheries where state forces can go but rarely establish a continual presence. This study aims to understand this entire criminal ecosystem by means of large-sample qualitative interviews with high-, mid- and low-ranking gang members, quantitative data collection on criminal groups, and experimental interventions with criminal gangs. This study also promotes training and scholarship by involving several post-doctoral and pre-doctoral students. This study addresses critical gaps in knowledge: how are urban criminal groups structured, how and why do they govern civilians, and how can authorities crowd them out? In Medellin, Colombia most poor- and middle-income neighborhoods are governed by criminal gangs. More than 300 local gangs resolve disputes, police and prevent crime, manage legal and illegal markets, and tax businesses. Above these local gangs lie roughly a dozen mafia-like organizations. These groups have developed complex hierarchies and rules to regulate crime, minimize conflict, and govern. By studying this entire criminal ecosystem, this project takes advantage of a unique, large-N setting to generate knowledge about criminal organization and governance. Unlike traditional case studies of single gangs or mafias, this study leverages the large number of armed groups in Medellin to develop more generalizable theory and findings through a three-pronged design that combines qualitative and quantitative research methods: (i) a qualitative study of the internal organization and external governance of dozens of gangs, through large-sample and multi-year interviews, with high-, mid- and low-ranking criminal members; (ii) primary and observational data collection, designed to measure variation in internal organization and external governance of hundreds of gangs; and (iii) the first of several experimental anti-gang interventions, beginning with one designed to understand and reduce criminal governance. This study will also have a broader impact on different dimensions by testing a locally-developed, non-militarized strategy; it could be used in similar contexts across Latin America. Moreover, it demonstrates that it is feasible to experiment on gang policy with rigor and scale, and spur further ethical experimentation in combating armed groups. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.