Assessing the Impacts of Coastal Flood-Induced Relocation on Local Jurisdictions

Virginia Polytechnic Institute And State University, Blacksburg VA

Investigators

Abstract

This interdisciplinary project studies the impacts of relocation in coastal communities on local jurisdictions. It will provide data about possible consequences of flood-driven depopulation of coastal jurisdictions, including the loss of sociocultural identity and economic viability. This information is imperative to support localities in policy changes that would minimize the adverse effects of flood-induced relocation on their governance and institutional performance. This project serves national interests by advancing science on emerging problems in coastal communities whose resilience is vital for national security, stability, and welfare. Its societal benefits are also achieved by including highly vulnerable coastal communities (e.g. rural fishing villages and urban poor), which are already experiencing various socioeconomic and environmental challenges that may compound their vulnerability. Results and supplemental materials will be disseminated via an online web portal designed to facilitate a community of researchers, practitioners, and other stakeholders interested in coastal resilience. Outreach will be enhanced by the Virginia Cooperative Extension, which has a long history of education in rural communities. The goal of this interdisciplinary project is to improve the scientific understanding of possible consequences of coastal flood-induced relocation on local jurisdictions with diverse socio-economic, cultural, institutional, and historic contexts. It will establish scenarios of coastal flood-driven relocation over different time scales in both rural and urban settings to discern potential implications of this process on the socioeconomic viability of local jurisdictions. This mixed-methods approach will rely on both quantitative and qualitative data to capture the contextual influences and complexities that typically shape local decision-making. The project activities will: 1) examine the risk of coastal flooding and develop spatiotemporal flood exposure scenarios of potential loss of businesses, real-estate, and corresponding population; 2) determine preferences for relocation destination among residents living in flood-prone areas obtained via household surveys, and 3) discern emergent macro-scale trends in relocation behavior using Agent Based Modeling (ABM). The analysis will be applied to two contrasting case study locations with different levels of urbanization on the Eastern Shore, Maryland, and in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Important aspects of the research strategy include interdisciplinary integration of geography, coastal and system engineering, and business analytics, as well as holistic analysis of circumstances that may affect the extent and progression of relocation from coastal flood-affected periphery. This project will ultimately lead to improved understanding of how physical, behavioral, and institutional factors interact to shape the evolution of coastal communities under increasing flood risks, thereby leading to more resilient communities in the coastal zone. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.