P2C2: High-resolution dynamical and statistical downscaling of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response in proxy-critical locations across the tropical Pacific

University Of Hawaii, Honolulu

Investigators

Abstract

This project aims to use an atmosphere-only mesoscale weather forecasting model (WRF) to downscale general circulation model (GCM) outputs in order to investigate how local and regional climate in the tropical Pacific region respond to different patterns (or flavors) of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from the last Glacial maximum to present. The downscaled GCM outputs will then be compared to ENSO proxy-records where they exist (Galapagos, eastern Pacific coasts, Line Islands and Palau) in order to quantitatively assess the diversity of ENSO impacts in these locations. This approach considers how the unique terrain and the local aspect of weather and climate modulate the complexity of ENSO-induced regional atmospheric circulation. The ultimate goal will be a better interpretation of ENSO proxy records and therefore a deeper understanding of ENSO variability through model-data comparison. The potential Broader Impacts include: 1) a suite of downscaled climate variables with state-of-the-art models (e.g. precipitation, soil moisture, temperature); 2) a database for expected range of recorded ENSO events at several proxy-record locations and climates; 3) a paleoclimate data-model comparison of ENSO at similar spatial scales (downscaled model outputs). These products will be useful for the paleoclimate communities, and for weather forecasting and risk prediction-associated with ENSO events- communities. The researcher will establish a collaboration with the national meteorology and hydrology service in Peru and develop an online course on modeling and statistics of climate. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.