NEON RCN: The Ecological Forecasting Initiative RCN: Using NEON-enabled near-term forecasting to synthesize our understanding of predictability across ecological systems and scales

Virginia Polytechnic Institute And State University, Blacksburg VA

Investigators

Abstract

The 21st century is characterized by major environmental changes that alter the ecosystems society depends on for supplying clean water, storing carbon, and supporting plants and animals. Predicting and forecasting the future of these systems can help resource managers anticipate and respond to these changes. Ecological forecasts also advance scientific understanding by developing and testing models and testing alternative views of how ecological systems operate. To harness the power of forecasting, a community of practice is needed. This community will establish standards for developing and communicating forecasts. It will share best practices for generating forecasts with known uncertainties. The group will create tools and educational materials to enable ecologists to begin forecasting. The Ecological Forecasting Initiative Research Coordination Network award will build this community of practice around forecasting data from the continental-scale National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). By focusing on data from NEON, the community will be challenged to develop and evaluate forecasts for a diversity of environments that exist across the United States. The award will train hundreds of early career researchers and graduate students in ecological forecasting. The Ecological Forecasting Initiative Research Coordination Network will use a set of network workshops, conferences, and collaborative software development events to address the following objectives: (1) develop best practices for archiving and sharing NEON-enabled ecological forecasts, (2) increase the number, diversity, and quality of NEON-enabled forecasts, (3) train the ecological community to produce NEON-enabled forecasts by developing open tutorials in ecological forecasting methods, (4) facilitate and support collaborative interactions dedicated to forecasting knowledge transfer among ecologists, (5) cultivate connections between the academic ecological forecasting community and mission-driven agencies that use forecasts to guide decision-making, and (6) synthesize existing forecasts and new NEON-enabled forecasts to evaluate limits to forecastability across ecological systems and scales. Overall, these objectives are focused on solving the grand challenge of understanding the predictability of nature. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.