Collaborative Research: P2C2--Elucidating the Drivers and Consequences of Changes in Atmospheric Rivers from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Present Day

Yale University, New Haven CT

Investigators

Abstract

This project aims to investigate the response of atmospheric rivers (ARs) to changes in the mean climate state and radiative forcing. This will be accomplished using a new set of paleoclimate simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) with the goal to understand the processes that drive past, present and future ARs responses, and evaluate their impact on regional hydroclimates and ecosystems. The researchers plan to conduct eight different experiments with the CESM2 in which ice sheets, orbital configurations, meltwater fluxes and carbon dioxide concentrations will be varied independently since the last glacial maximum. An ARs tracking algorithm will be implemented to objectively identify ARs across climate states and then used to quantify the distribution, frequency, intensity, and seasonal character of ARs changes and their impact on precipitation. The project is organized about three specific objectives: 1) develop a robust AR tracking algorithm for use in climate change studies; 2) understand the relationships between ARs and climate system forcings; and 3) quantify the contribution of AR changes to regional hydroclimate over the last glacial-interglacial transition. The potential Broader Impacts include a better understanding of the role of ARs within the climate system. An international collaboration is planned to conduct an official Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison activity with the resulting AR catalogues being archived and made publicly available. The project supports the training of a graduate student and a Postdoctoral scholar. In addition, a professional development workshop for regional high school teachers will be organized as part of an ongoing program at the University of Massachusetts Lowell. A set of modules centered on the physics of the climate system and the interdisciplinary applications of climate science will be developed and made available to the workshop participants. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.