AGU Chapman Conference on Understanding Carbon-Climate Feedbacks

American Geophysical Union, Washington DC

Investigators

Abstract

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to increase, mainly from burning of fossil fuels and land use change (e.g., conversion of forest to farmland). Atmospheric CO2 is, however, only growing at about half the rate expected given human emissions. This difference is largely due to the removal of carbon from the atmosphere by terrestrial ecosystems and the oceans. This carbon-climate feedback is limited by how much CO2 the land and oceans can absorb from the atmosphere. This amount is, in turn, influenced by changes in the Earth's climate and its variability, raising questions about how the long-term potential for carbon removal may change. Large uncertainties remain in the direction and magnitude of future carbon-climate feedbacks and in projections of future atmospheric CO2 concentration. This project takes a step towards filling this gap in knowledge by bringing together scientists from many disciplines to integrate knowledge that has traditionally been developed independently. In particular, this project will target early career scientists from underrepresented groups to participate and bring new perspectives to bear on this problem. The products of this conference will also be essential for policy makers and the development of climate adaptation plans. The AGU Chapman conference in San Diego titled Understanding Carbon-Climate Feedbacks, will be instrumental in advancing the field by addressing the following key questions: 1. How can carbon-climate feedback processes be detected in the face of natural interannual, decadal, and centennial ecosystem variability? 2. What are the critical ecosystem processes, scales, and regions that control the total impact of carbon-climate feedbacks on the atmospheric CO2 inventory? 3. To what degree are global carbon-climate feedbacks dominated by sensitive ecoregions? 4. How can the contemporary knowledge of ecosystem process controls on carbon-climate feedbacks be used to improve predictions of climate systems? The participants in the meeting will discuss and establish the top priorities for ecosystem science development to reduce the uncertainties of climate predictions and support an improved response to a rapidly changing planet. This conference will provide key input and guidance for new research directions within ecosystem studies that will yield direct benefits to climate science, as well as broader benefits to global society. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.