Perturbations of Earth Surface Dynamics Caused by Extreme Events

Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO

Investigators

Abstract

This award will enable eight U.S.-based scientists to attend an international EGU Galileo conference in Nepal on October 13th-19th, 2019. This scientific conference is being held at the site of the catastrophic 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake. It will bring together experts from various scientific fields to present and discuss research and new directions for studies of extreme events on earth surface dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, and ecosystems on a range of timescales. It will be topically focused, consist of 50-80 participants and include 3.5 days of talks, poster presentations, and breakout sessions and a 1.5-day field trip to a catchment heavily impacted by the Gorkha earthquake and a 2016 glacial lake outburst flood. The meeting will provide the basis for an upcoming special issue in the journal Earth Surface Dynamics focused on the response of near-surface systems to extreme events. Organizers of the meeting will draft a public document defining grand challenges and research needs in "extreme event science" with input from participants gathered during planned breakout sessions. Participation of U.S. scientists in this meeting will foster international collaboration. Selection of U.S. participants will occur through an application process vetted by the Principal Investigator and co-organizers of the meeting. They will select applicants based on need and give preference to minorities and other underrepresented groups in the geosciences. Extreme events, such as large earthquakes, high magnitude precipitation events, floods, wildfires, and volcanic eruptions, perturb earth surface dynamics instantaneously, have cascading effects, and are likely important in dictating system behavior on short and long timescales. The immediate impact of these events often grabs global attention and response due to the associated natural hazards. Recent advances in monitoring techniques, such as ground-based instrumentation and remotely sensed satellite data, has allowed quantification of the landscape, biogeochemical and hydrologic response to such events with unprecedented accuracy and precision. Such studies document the initial catastrophic consequences and ensuing process cascades. Modeling efforts have shed light on the potential long-term consequences of extreme perturbations, and suggest that in many cases these rare high-magnitude events are more important than slow and steady "background" processes when integrated over time. Scientific interest in improving understanding of extreme events on landscape dynamics on short to long timescales has grown in the past decade. However, despite recent progress, significant knowledge gaps exist, particularly with respect to the complex response to perturbations and potential feedbacks between various systems that operate in the Earth's near-surface environment. In addition to bringing together a wide range of scientists with the aim of identifying knowledge gaps and future research directions in the role of extreme events on earth surface dynamics, this conference will set forth guidelines for how to best approach such studies in the aftermath of an event. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.