RAPID: Effect of Hurricane Florence on Homeowner Willingness to Engage in Flood Risk Mitigation and Buyout Contracts

East Carolina University, Greenville NC

Investigators

Abstract

Because the location and timing of future natural disasters are unknown, it is difficult to time a research study to sample an impacted population prior to, during, and after a disaster occurs. Because of some good fortune, this research project can do exactly that. The research team was already administering an online survey prior to and during the landfall of Hurricane Florence. The goal of the survey is to identify homeowner preferences related to home buyout programs (purchasing and destroying homes with high flood risk) and flood mitigation programs (subsidizing the elevation of homes with high flood risk). A substantial portion of the sample came from areas within the predicted path of Hurricane Florence. This Rapid Response Research (RAPID) project will survey the same respondents in the immediate aftermath of the hurricane (1-2 months after the event) and the more distant future (~ 6 months after the event). This methodology, combined with data on the geospatial location of the properties, will provide a unique understanding of how geographic proximity to a disaster event influences homeowner preference for different kinds of risk reduction strategies, as well as how these preferences evolve over time as the event and corresponding news coverage and recovery efforts associated with it become more distant in the memory of respondents. This scientific research contribution thus supports NSF's mission to promote the progress of science and to advance our national welfare. In this case, the benefits will be insights to improve management of homes in flood plains, which can save lives and reduce economic losses. The purpose of this project is to identify the effect of demographic, location, and contract attributes on likelihood that the homeowner adopts flood mitigation or alternatively would accept an acquisition (buyout) offer. The survey is structured as a choice experiment with additional household level data collected on the homeowner, flood experience, perception of flood risk, and the physical address of the property. The property address will be used to identify structural characteristics in the public record, elevation, and FEMA flood zone designation, in addition to flood inundation maps for Hurricane Florence. This RAPID project will extend previous survey data, resurveying the 200 original respondents plus collecting an additional 400 responses to create a panel which will be surveyed two additional times to judge changes in perceptions. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.