Collaborative Research: Understanding Evacuation Behavior for Rapid Onset Disasters such as Flash Floods and Tsunamis in the Cascadia Subduction Zone

Oregon State University, Corvallis OR

Investigators

Abstract

This project advances the fundamental understanding of household responses to rapid onset disasters such as flash floods and near-field tsunamis in the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Specifically, this project will address two often-neglected fundamental issues in evacuation research. First, although there has been extensive research on evacuation rates and the factors that affect household evacuation decisions, there has been little research on evacuation logistics. In particular, recent research on evacuations from rapid onset disasters has revealed that few studies have addressed the timing of warning diffusion and household mobilization, let alone the predictors of these variables. This poses a significant impediment to transportation researchers who require accurate estimates of the time dependent rates at which evacuees enter the evacuation route system because time is critical to the likelihood of surviving tsunami waves or inland flooding. Second, there has been little research on evacuees' transportation mode choices (vehicular vs. pedestrian) from mountainous coasts where both modes are feasible. Transportation mode choice is closely related to households' choice of evacuation routes and destinations. These issues are addressed by conducting a behavioral expectations survey of a representative sample of residents in three communities on the Oregon coast. The behavioral expectations survey is supplemented by surveys of people who participate in tsunami evacuation drills. Data from these sources are integrated into an agent-based evacuation model. This project will develop a tsunami interactive multi-touch exhibit to transform hazard literacy education at the Hatfield Marine Science Center Cyber-Learning Laboratory. This scientific research contribution thus supports NSF's mission to promote the progress of science and to advance our national welfare with benefits by identifying critical needs for household and community evacuation planning in advance of rapid onset disasters such as tsunamis and flash floods. This project integrates the multiple disciplines of social science, hazard science, and engineering through an interdisciplinary agent-based modeling framework to investigate household's response to rapid onset disasters such as tsunamis and flash floods. The research objective is to systematically compare experiential evacuation drills to prior research on people's responses to the earthquakes and tsunami threat in Christchurch, Tohoku, and American Samoa, complemented by data from a tsunami evacuation expectations survey on the Oregon coast. These data will underpin a validated interdisciplinary agent-based modeling framework that advances the theoretical understanding and practical utilization of scientific findings regarding household response to imminent threats. Specifically, this project will achieve the following four objectives: (1) conduct systematic comparisons of experiential drills to actual events to uncover ways they differ; (2) identify and validate the critical decision-making factors that facilitate or inhibit the implementation of protective actions; (3) characterize the behavioral outcomes of tsunami vertical evacuation and unplanned infrastructure disruptions; and (4) establish an experiential cyberlearning platform to enhance tsunami literacy education. The results from this project will provide disaster planners and managers with a strong evidence-based framework to create effective evacuation strategies and evacuation route system mitigation plans. This project will also underpin improved understanding by STEM students, policy makers and planners, agency/industry professionals, and the general public, of tsunamis and measures that can lead to improved life safety and community resilience. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.