RAPID: Violence and the Persistence of Ethnic Indentification

University Of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia PA

Investigators

Abstract

Does exposure to ethnic violence generate effects that persist for decades? Are victims of violence, including forcibly displaced persons, more or less likely to participate in politics and are they more likely to hold negative attitudes toward out-groups? Are recurrences of conflict more likely to trigger negative reactions among people who have experienced violence in the past? We propose to study these questions in a "frozen" conflict in Cyprus, where ethnic violence more than 40 years ago created a de facto partition of the island. We build on research conducted during the summer of 2016 to explore consequences of violence exposure in the context of a recently terminated (failed) peace process. Via a second wave of a nationally-representative survey, we can measure changes in attitudes as a function of the recent failure of an internationally-mediated peacemaking process. Our survey covers Greek Cypriots' experiences with violence, social backgrounds, social and political values, perceptions of and attitudes toward different ethnic groups, opinions on the reunification of Cyprus, and participation in civic and political life. In the aftermath of the failure of reunification talks, we are in the unique position to do a second round (panel) survey of Greek Cypriots. Our study will be the first social-scientific analysis of determinants of Greek Cypriot attitudes toward each other andtoward Turkish Cypriots, testing hypotheses about how the failure of peace talks and the violence of 1974 affect their political views and their proclivity to support reunification. Combined with the data previously collected, these data could help us to better understand how social preferences respond to ethnic antagonism. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.