RII Track-4: Winter Weather Whiplash and its Impacts on Socio-Ecological Systems

University Of New Hampshire, Durham NH

Investigators

Abstract

Nontechnical Description In the popular media, "weather whiplash" describes how rapid changes in weather, for example from drought to deluge or wildfire to downpour, can result in substantial economic and social costs. Scientists have recently adopted the "weather whiplash" concept to illustrate the ecological consequences of extreme changes in weather conditions. Missing from both the popular media and the scientific literature is an understanding of how rapid reversals in winter weather can impact natural systems and human communities. A deeper understanding of these events, the ways in which they have changed over time, and the extent of their impacts is needed in order to mitigate their potential risks. This project will advance this understanding by making an extended visit to the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) in Annapolis, Maryland. While there, the PI will: 1) develop a classification scheme to categorize different types of winter weather whiplash events; 2) examine whether and how these events have changed through time with novel statistical techniques; and 3) determine the impacts of winter weather whiplash by evaluating their costs to life and property. The project will both advance the scientific idea of winter weather whiplash as a new type of extreme event while also increasing public awareness of the drivers and impacts of winter weather whiplash. Technical Description Compound extremes are a class of extreme events receiving increased attention in scientific, policy, and risk management circles due to their outsized impacts on natural systems and human communities. "Weather whiplash" is a more colloquial phrase for describing compound extreme weather events that might include shifts from drought to deluge, wildfire to downpour, or hot to cold conditions. Prior media coverage of weather whiplash, as well as past research on compound extremes, have largely ignored winter weather whiplash events. Yet compound extremes in winter weather may impact physical, natural, and human systems in unique ways. The goal of this project is to develop a quantitative framework for understanding the drivers and impacts of winter weather whiplash events through an extended visit to the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) in Annapolis, MD. While in residence, the PI will: 1) develop a typology of winter weather whiplash events by consulting government databases, conducting key informant interviews, and reviewing historical media; 2) examine whether and how these events have changed through time with a statistical technique that quantifies the behavior of compound extremes; and 3) determine the impacts of winter weather whiplash by evaluating their costs to life and property. The primary outputs will be publications and presentations for both scientific and public audiences. The fellowship's outcomes include developing the PI's abilities to engage in convergence research around the theme of winter climate change while also helping make the PI's home institution institution a national leader in addressing societal grand challenges. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.